Nice String of Fall Days Ahead

* * * No Weather Xtreme Video this morning! James is winging his way to Madison for the NWA national conference, and I will be helping with various duties at the polling place in Helena for the mayoral runoff election. * * *

So here is the discussion for today. Looks like clouds advecting into Alabama from the east have created a bit of an west to east gradient. Anniston was 50 at 5 am while Haleyville was 37. The clouds that edged into the eastern sections of Alabama helped to keep temperatures up this morning.

The clouds should mix out during the morning giving Alabama a nice sunny days with highs topping out near the 70-degree mark.

A broad upper trough was situated over the eastern two-thirds of the US this morning while at the surface a cold front was expected to move from near Omaha, NB, to the vicinity of Southeast Missouri by this evening. That front should move through Alabama on Wednesday as a strong short wave moves through the Great Lakes area. That means another shot of cool air for us after a warm Wednesday with a high in the upper 70s. Without much if any moisture to deal with, there should be no rain, just a few clouds. High pressure settles into the state on Thursday.

Aloft, a cutoff low spinning in the Southwest US will gradually come out into the Central US by Saturday evening as it opens up and moves northeastward. A sprawling high will migrate from the western Great Lakes to New York by Saturday keeping us supplied with great weather. Lows moving from the lower 40s on Thursday morning to the middle 50s by Saturday and Sunday. Highs should be mainly in the 70s but closing in on the 80-degree mark by the weekend.

A cold front will move into the Southeast late Sunday and early Monday, however, as the upper trough moves quickly from the Central US into Southeast Canada, our upper flow goes nearly zonal. This means there will be little push for the front to move through the area, so it is likely to just wash out. And once again, there is not likely to be much moisture for any precipitation.

SPC folks are enjoying the good weather with no organized severe storms anticipated for the next three days. Confidence is increasing that there could be severe weather on Saturday, Day 5, as the surface low and associated upper trough come out of the Southwest US. This is certainly not set in stone, but the Central Plains area could be in for a fairly significant bout of severe weather then.

The tropics remain relatively quiet. Two areas of disturbed weather are being watched, one just east-southeast of the Bahamas and a second one located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. Neither of these areas is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days due to marginal conditions. Wind shear ahead of the system east-southeast of the Leeward Islands is likely to diminish in the next couple of days, so it will need to be watched later this week.

Ridging seems to be the dominating feature in the long range GFS model projections. So for the moment, it looks like mild to warm conditions with little rain potential. But you know how these projections into voodoo country can change!

Don’t forget to listen to our weekly netcast anytime on the web or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

I’ll be filling in for James Wednesday and Thursday, so I expect to have a Weather Xtreme Video each of those mornings. Just could not get it all done today and still get to the Helena polling place in time to take the oath of office! Several runoffs are occurring in Alabama for local elections, so be sure to get out and vote if there is a runoff in your area. Make it a great day. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather