Slight Moderation But More Cold Coming

The Friday afternoon edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:

I did not have a chance to look at the previous model run that James spoke about this morning, but it looks like we can find a bit of confidence in the model solutions when there is some run to run consistency. Looks like the weekend will start off dry – hooray – with moderating temperatures. I think we could see the temperatures reach the lower 50s IF the clouds don’t thicken too much. Either way, upper 40s or lower 50s, it is going to be a fairly nice day for Saturday.

Weather to our west won’t be as nice with more winter weather watches and warnings posted for Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and a small part of Arkansas. Some of the same area that got clobbered last week is going to get it once again with this next system. Not good for them.

Sunday the changes begin for us as a cold front gets close enough by midday to bring rain to Northwest Alabama and eventually into Central Alabama. Fortunately, our atmosphere seems to warm up enough that there is no threat of wintery weather with this precipitation. Rainfall amounts should be between three-quarters and an inch and a quarter.

The frontal boundary will not make much progress as the flow aloft becomes southwesterly on late Sunday and early Monday. The GFS is suggesting the rain could be out of here by midday, but I think the rain is likely to linger a bit longer than that. The northern and southern streams begin to phase on Tuesday with significantly colder air forecast to get into Central Alabama on Wednesday and Thursday. If this pattern verifies, it’s going to be another one of those raw days with temperatures climbing little with strong cold air advection. GFS model numbers may be on the optimistic side and I think it’s possible we could see a day with highs only in the 30s.

GFS is also showing some moisture coming out of the north and northwest on Wednesday and Thursday. This could bring light snow or snow flurries to northern Alabama, but this is not usually the type of situation that results in any significant snowfall – perhaps as much as a light dusting but little more.

The thing that will have to be watched is this southern stream and the development of any waves on the front in the Monday-Tuesday time frame. As we have just seen for much of this week, the models simply do not handle shallow cold air and southern stream features well. Part of the problem comes with the southern stream originating in a data sparse area. As long as the southern stream remains active as it appears it will, we will need to watch carefully for near-term developments and jump on those when we see them developing.

Friday will still be cold, but there is some sign of moderation by Saturday but it is certainly not going to be warm by any stretch of the imagination. After near normal temperatures this Saturday and Sunday, it’s back into the deep freeze again for much of the next week.

Glad to be able to be with you this afternoon. James will be on ABC 3340 with the 5, 6, and 10 pm weather. I’ll be doing the weather over the weekend with Weather Xtreme Videos Saturday and Sunday morning by 9 am or so.

-Brian-

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