Potential Historic East Coast Storm Ahead
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EYES ON SANDY: New model guidance is in excellent agreement this morning; a high impact nor’easter type storm with a huge circulation will bring a major headache to the East Coast of the U.S. in coming days, but before we focus on that, let’s look at weather here at home.
TWO PLAYERS TO WATCH: You can see things coming together for a potential “perfect storm” setup. The coldest air so far this season is moving down across the High Plains; snow is falling over parts of the Dakotas with temperatures below freezing at mid-afternoon. Then, to the south, Hurricane Sandy is moving over the island of Jamaica on the journey north.
Around here, the day is delightful, with ample sunshine and temperatures in the 77 to 80 degree range in most places. Our weather won’t change much tomorrow and Friday.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Sure looks like the cold front will pass through Friday night with little fanfare. There might be a shower on the front, but with very limited moisture most places will stay dry.
Saturday and Sunday will be blustery and much, much cooler. The GFS MOS products don’t have a really good handle on the magnitude of the situation with the bitterly cold Arctic air to the northwest, and Sandy to the east. We will have a hard time getting past the low 60s Saturday, and the upper 50s Sunday. Strong north winds will make it feel colder; winds should average 15-25 mph both days, with potential for gusts to over 35 mph in spots, especially over East Alabama Sunday. At least we should see a decent amount of sunshine both days.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS is trending colder, and that is clearly correct. Highs Monday through Wednesday now look to be only in the 50s, with lows in the 30s. A very real chance we will see the first freeze of the season for much of North Alabama Tuesday and Wednesday morning, with potential for widespread frost, perhaps Wednesday morning when the wind finally dies down. The week will be rain-free.
ONE FOR THE AGES? Too early to talk about the historic significance of this storm, but all interests on the U.S. East Coast from Key West to the tip of Maine will have to monitor the progress of Sandy very closely in coming days. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and details.
Sandy is over the island of Jamaica this afternoon with top winds of 80 mph. She will cross Cuba early tomorrow, and wind up over the Bahamas by Friday.
Sandy will be not too far east of the Florida peninsula this weekend, meaning wind, some rain, and extremely rough surf and potential for beach erosion all the way from Miami north to Daytona Beach. It will be very windy during the Georgia/Florida game in Jacksonville Saturday afternoon.
Sandy will make a slow transformation from a warm core tropical system to a cold core “nor’easter” type system over the weekend. Doesn’t really matter what you call it, it has potential to be a very high impact system for much of the Atlantic Coast region of the U.S.
And, while confidence is high in a high impact storm the East Coast, the details remain muddy.
GFS OR ECMWF: No doubt the Euro (ECMWF) has been the most consistent model with Sandy in recent days. The 12Z run shows a whopper, 935 mb low just east of the mouth of Chesapeake Bay early Monday morning. This scenario would bring high winds, widespread power outages, inland flooding, and major beach flooding/erosion all the way from North Carolina north to New England.
On the other hand, the GFS has the system moving into the coast of Maine Tuesday night with a pressure of 952 mb. This would be bad for the East Coast, but the impact would be lower since the most significant effects will be along and north of the circulation center, where there is an onshore slow. We note the Canadian (GEMS) is close to the GFS with the center near Cape Cod late Monday night.
PLANNING: Now is a good time for everybody along the Atlantic coast, especially those from North Carolina north to Maine, to make plans on extended power outages, and have a readiness kit in place for what could be an historic storm late this weekend and early next week.
We note the NWS will launch upper air balloons four times a day across the U.S. through early next week to make for more reliable model output (upper air soundings are usually gathered only twice daily).
I hope the national media is responsible with this system… we all know how sometimes they can do off the deep end and make statements that just aren’t true.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tomorrow night, the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures dropping from the low 70s at kickoff into the 60s by the second half. Then, on Friday night, just a small risk of a brief shower, otherwise the sky will be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the 60s.
The Magic City Classic is Saturday afternoon at Legion Field (Alabama State vs Alabama A&M; 2:30 p.m. kickoff); the weather will be windy and very cool with a kickoff temperature near 60 degrees, falling into the 50s during the second half. Strong north winds will average 12-25 mph, with potential for gusts over 30 mph.
Saturday night Alabama will host the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Bryant-Denny Stadium (7:30 p.m. kickoff). The sky will be mostly fair, but the weather will be windy and cold. Temperatures will drop from near 54 degrees at kickoff into the 40s during the second half. North winds of 10-20 mph will make it feel colder. Auburn will host Texas A&M at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday night (6:00 p.m. kickoff); pretty much the same story as Tuscaloosa. Mostly fair with temperatures falling from near 58 at kickoff into the 40s by the fourth quarter. Strong north winds will average 10-20 mph, with potential for higher gusts.
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I had a great time today visiting with the kids at Northport Elementary School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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