Another Cold Night Ahead

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ANOTHER COLD NIGHT: The dewpoint at Birmingham is 18 as I write this. That means the air is very dry, and that dry air will quickly chill down after the sun goes down around 5:00 this afternoon. Low 30s are likely by daybreak tomorrow, with 20s again for the colder valleys. Scroll down for J.B.’s full list of lows around the state this morning. You will need to dress warmly for high school football games tonight; the mercury could reach the upper 30s by the fourth quarter in many stadiums!

THE WEEKEND: Dry and cool weather is the story for the weekend; a sunny sky tomorrow and just a few scattered clouds on Sunday. Highs will be in the 60s.

NEXT WEEK: After a review of the latest GFS run (12Z), I still think we need to insert a chance of showers on Tuesday. Probably not a big rain event, but some energy aloft will bring decent upward vertical motion in the atmosphere. The main event should hold off until the end of the week, one week from today (Friday November 10). A dynamic system will bring a good round of rain and storms to the Deep South, and I would not be surprised if a severe weather threat unfolds. This latest model run doesn’t look quite as strong as last night’s 00Z run, but the GFS is really having a hard time with this active pattern. We note the 12Z run moves the rain and storms out of the state by early Saturday morning (November 11)… hopefully that is correct and we won’t have severe weather problems during Storm Alert XTREME at the BJCC that day!

LONG RANGE: I still expect another dynamic storm system at mid-month (sometime in the November 14-17 time frame), with potential for strong storms and the chance of a big change to cold weather after it passes. The 00Z run from last night looks much better than this morning’s run in the longer range. Once again, simply no way to resolve details at this stage of the game. Just understand some very cold air is available in the northern part of the continent, and with a strong jet core with any amplitude at all, you have the potential for some wild weather across the “lower 48”, including our part of the nation. Hang on for a wild ride… will be very interesting to watch this unfold in coming weeks.

Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme video updates over the weekend… my next one will be posted Monday morning, bright and early by 7:00 a.m. Have a great weekend and enjoy the fall colors… it doesn’t get much better than this!

Category: Pre-November 2010 Posts