Saturday Weather Xtreme Video

The Saturday edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:

I forgot to include the Storm Alert Tour graphic in the video, so just a reminder that we kick off the 2007 version on February 1st in Tuscaloosa at Shelton State Community College. I believe we’ll be in the gym there. I hope everyone will get a chance to attend one of the events – it’s certainly shaping up to be a great hour for anyone interested in the weather.

Quick check of the morning observations shows temperatures in the 30s with some upper 20s across Northeast Alabama. What struck me were the very low dew points. 18 was the dew point at 6 am at Birmingham. The sounding from the Shelby County Airport last night showed a very dry layer from 900 to 700 millibars – roughly 6,000 feet thick. That dry layer also helped to evaporate the precipitation that was seen on radar late last night.

The southern jet stream is still active with moisture coming out of the southern Pacific into Texas and Oklahoma. Winter storm watches, warnings, and advisories cover a large section of the Central and South Central US. Another messy weekend for those folks after having been clobbered just one week ago. I can’t help but hope that the weather pattern changes soon to give them a break out there.

The closed low just south of the four corners area kicks out Sunday and races up to the Great Lakes dragging a front into the Southeast US and Central Alabama. Without a good push the boundary hangs up Sunday night and Monday until the northern stream begins to intensify Tuesday and Wednesday to suppress the moisture and precipitation south of us.

With strong southwesterly flow aloft, we should see temperatures reach the 50s for today and Sunday and even Monday. Much colder air arrives on Wednesday as the northern stream intensifies and plunges Central Alabama back into the deep freeze by Thursday. Thickness forecasts from the GFS are not as dire as they were on the 12Z run yesterday. However, the 850 millibar temperatures show the zero degree isotherm reaching all the way to Mobile. Perhaps the GFS is doing a bit better in picking up the thinner cold air this time since it seems to be originating from an area with good data coverage.

The GFS also hints at a low in the Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday. The low is rather weak and seems to be suppressed a bit too far south. This pattern will bear watching as we get closer to the event. If the low is as far south as the GFS notes, then we should not have any winter weather concerns. But if the GFS is off even 50 miles, it could make a world of difference to the resulting weather we have.

A quick peek into voodoo land shows a continuation of the long wave trough and cold weather over the eastern half of the country through the end of January and into the first of February. Minor warm ups may occur as we are seeing today and Sunday during that period, but the screaming trend indicated by the models is that winter is here to stay.

Thanks for joining us here for the Weather Xtreme Video. I’ll have another one posted tomorrow morning. It will probably be shorter because it is my Sunday to usher for the early service at my church. I hope you each have a great Saturday and a great weekend. God bless.

-Brian-

PS If you are in the Helena, Pelham, Alabaster, Hoover area, mark your calendar for a special weather event in Helena. The Helena CERT group will be hosting a weather safety presentation on Tuesday, February 20th, at 7 pm at the Helena City Hall. CERT members will be on hand to assist people with programming NOAA Weather Radios and I’ll be there to discuss severe weather planning for families. Should be an informative evening, so I hope you can attend.

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