Warming Up with Some Rain Ahead

| November 25, 2012 @ 7:31 am

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Thanks for tuning into the Weather Xtreme Video. Sorry for the audio issues yesterday. I think I tracked down the issues and have them resolved for now. Unfortunately the cold I’m dealing with has done a number on the voice quality, but not much I can do about that except letting this darn cold take its course.

It is downright cold this morning with 20s across all of North and Central Alabama. 51 was the official high at the Birmingham airport yesterday, and I think we’ll see the afternoon a bit warmer than that as we head into the upper 50s. But clouds will be on the increase Monday as the next frontal system approaches late Monday and into Tuesday. There has been some concern about the potential for severe weather with this system since earlier in the week there were signs of a more potent system then what it now appears we’ll get. Instability continues to be lacking as the system arrives here. In fact, SPC has a slight risk for severe weather over northern Louisiana and East Texas on Day 2 (Monday) but has no specific outlook area on Day 3 (Tuesday). CAPE appears to be quite limited, but looking at the LI (Lifted Index) there is a little instability which might be enough to produce isolated thunderstorms closer to the coast. So it appears likely that we will be skating by on this one.

The bad news, though, is that after nearly two weeks without rain, it appears that rainfall amounts will also be quite limited. HPC is painting about a half inch for most of Alabama and that seems about right. I’ll take what I can get, but most of Central Alabama has only seen about an inch and a quarter of rain so far this month, much below the average November rainfall of 4.63 inches.

Wednesday promises to be another chilly day with highs in the 50s as the trough moves on by and we come under weak ridging. By Thursday a short wave trough comes out of the Rockies. Yesterday it appeared that it would be moisture starved and of little consequence. The latest run suggests that there may be more moisture return ahead of this system for at least small chances of rain late Friday and into Saturday. For now, I’m going to stick with a dry forecast until I see better evidence of enough moisture to generate rain.

Looking out into voodoo country, we find that the GFS has flipped from yesterday. We’re still looking at a rain event around December 5th and 9th, but now the GFS has a much more robust trough to go with those rain chances. This suggests a much colder pattern than what it was projecting yesterday.

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James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing Monday morning. And I believe he’ll be back on a two a day schedule. Again, sorry for the croaky voice. I hope you have a chance to enjoy the beautiful Fall day. Godspeed.


Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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