Wet 24 Hours Ahead

The Sunday edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:

Don’t forget the Storm Alert 2007 Tour begins in about twelve days. We kick off this year in Tuscaloosa at Shelton State Community College. All the Storm Alert programs begin at 7 pm, so we hope you can join us for one near you.

Western Alabama waking up to some rain this morning as rain was bisecting the state. The leading edge of the rain as I write this stretched from Centre to Birmingham to near Livingston. Rain should continue to move across the remaining dry portions of the state this morning, making for a wet, gray, gloomy looking Sunday. Fortunately temperatures have moderated enough that we have no concerns about winter weather.

Speaking of temperatures, they actually went up overnight. At 10 pm, the Birmingham airport was 44 and at 6 am today they were up to 49. Sure easy to see the impact of warm air advection on a morning like this.

The 06Z GFS model run is showing the rain moving further south of Birmingham on Monday morning than the run yesterday. While Monday will be a cloudy day, this could mean that we’ll be dry. I’m still not sure that the GFS has the best handle on this southern stream situation, but we’ll go with it for now.

As the northern stream becomes more active on Tuesday, Central Alabama should stay dry with only a slight drop in temperature. But the GFS is still hinting at the development of a weak low in the Northwest Gulf which moves by Wednesday night and early Thursday, hugging the Gulf Coast. Thickness values around 540 stay just north of the TN/AL line, however, the 850 millibar zero degree isotherm is near Birmingham. This subtle feature could mean some light freezing precipitation for parts of North and Central Alabama for Thursday morning. It’s always dicey as to whether the cold air can arrive before the precipitation ends, and this situation is no exception. It’s going to be a close call and we are still four days out. Plus the storm track and exact strength of the low will have a strong impact on resulting weather. Definitely something to watch.

The GFS backed off the extreme cold yesterday and this run continued to show that. It’s going to get cold, just not as bitterly cold as the model run on Friday suggested.

Once that surface low gets by, it deepens as it moves up the East Coast and could bring some problems to the Mid-Atlantic states. But behind it, surface high pressure settles into the Southeast with temperatures expected to return close to seasonal values this time of year – lows around 30 and highs in the lower 50s.

Trolling out quickly, the cold weather does not appear ready to vacate the area. The GFS continued to show the long wave trough position over the eastern half of the country. This should keep the pattern active and challenging into early February.

Thanks for tuning in to the Weather Xtreme Video. James should be back with the next one on Monday morning, and I’ll be handling the weather duties tonight on ABC 3340 at 5 and 10 pm – hope you can join me. Have a great Sunday – God bless.

-Brian-

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