Slow Warming Trend Ahead

| December 12, 2012 @ 2:39 pm

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THIS AFTERNOON: The sky is generally partly sunny across Alabama this afternoon as a strong upper trough is passing overhead. We actually had a few sprinkles over Northwest Alabama this morning, but those have dissipated. Temperatures are mostly in the low 50s, but some places, where clouds persisted much of the day, are not out of the 40s.

Tonight will be cold again, and with the sky becoming clear many communities will see a low near freezing by daybreak tomorrow.

Tomorrow and Friday will feature a good supply of sunshine with a warming trend; we expect a high in the upper 50s tomorrow, followed by low 60s Friday.

WEEKEND SHOWERS: The next weather system to impact Alabama will bring a chance of showers this weekend. While some rain could break out during the day Saturday, seems like the best chance will come Saturday night into Sunday. A surface front will stall out before moving through, so afternoons will be pleasant with highs in the 60s both days. Rain amounts should be less than 1/2 inch through Sunday afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: No doubt a very significant upper trough will impact Alabama, but there are great model differences.

The reliable ECMWF (the European), shows widespread rain Sunday night across Alabama, followed by a break in the rain Monday. Then, another rain event is likely Tuesday with a deep upper low/trough right overhead. Looks like a cold rain with this solution; many North Alabama cities won’t make it out of the 40s Tuesday, and to the north a little snow is possible over Northwest Tennessee and Northeast Arkansas.

The American global model, the GFS, shows very little rain Sunday night, but brings the main upper system through here on Monday with a good soaking rain, followed by cooler and drier air Tuesday and Wednesday with a major coastal storm rolling up the East Coast.

We will side with the Euro for now in our forecast, but the confidence is not especially high with such model differences. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

CHRISTMAS PEEK: The GFS still looks very cold for Christmas in Alabama; the 12Z runs hints we might have a hard time getting out of the 30s, but we simply don’t know the timing of the cold air shots now. And, a couple of coastal lows tend to make for interesting times in the December 22-29 time frame. Again, spend a few minutes and watch the Weather Xtreme video for the good details and maps.

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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