Cold And Colder

The Tuesday afternoon edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:

Today is yet another example of just how bad the MOS (model output statistics) have been lately. The models figured we would be in the mid 50s today; most places are having a hard time getting out of the low 40s. And, forget the sunshine… the clouds linger with the screaming sub-tropical jet stream, our old friend the Pineapple Express. The weather is very cloudy and cold. I doubt if our weather will change much tomorrow; the GFS numbers are laughable.

The models continue to hint that the STJ will sink southward on Thursday, allowing for a bright sunny sky, but there is no credible evidence supporting that theory at this point. Looks like a mix of sun and clouds on Thursday and Friday, and most likely there will be more clouds than sun. The weather will stay chilly with highs in the 40s.

WEEKEND ISSUES: The 12Z GFS looks stronger and wetter with the short wave coming at us. A nice batch of rain moves in here Saturday night as a surface low forms in the northern Gulf of Mexico in response to the short wave. This could be problematic with the current thermal profile. You have to look at some kind of wintry precipitation for the northern part of the state Saturday night; might be sleet, might be snow, mixed with a cold rain. Surface temperatures should hold a little above freezing, so hopefully there will be no travel issues. But, this is a difficult pattern and we will surely have to keep an eye on the situation.

Sunday looks much colder as big time cold air advection kicks in. We should hold in the 30s all day with an icy north wind and lingering clouds. Maybe even a few snow flurries somewhere around here.

NEXT WEEK: Cold is the word. I still think we will have a very hard time getting out of the 30s on Monday and Tuesday. Forget those GFS MOS numbers. Then, at mid-week a nice short wave spins up another Gulf storm, and that could be the next threat of wintry precipitation somewhere across the Deep South. Forget the details, no way of knowing now. We will have to watch the Wednesday night-Thursday (January 31-February 1) time frame for this.

LONG RANGE: The ECMWF and the GFS look very, very cold as we head into February. Like I posted here this morning, maybe record, historic type cold for a good part of the nation. And, of course, along with the brutal cold will come the active southern stream along with associated storm train. Times sure look interesting in coming weeks.

WEATHERBRAINS: Don’t forget, the new episode of WeatherBrains is up on the web and on iTunes… listen if you have some time in coming days. This is our weekly netcast, and this week marks the one year anniversary of the show (our 52nd episode)!

Thanks to all the kids at Boyd Elementary in Dora, and Briarwood Christian in Birmingham today for allowing me to come and speak with them about meteorology. The Dora crowd will on the KIDCAM today at 5:00, while the second grade from Briarwood will be on tomorrow at 5:00. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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