Severe Weather Likely By Early Wednesday Morning
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MILD JANUARY WEATHER: Temperatures are generally in the 60s across the great state of Alabama this afternoon; some sunshine is getting through the clouds in most places, and there is nothing on radar.
Tomorrow will be even warmer; we expect a high in the low to mid 70s, which is about 20 degrees above average, and not far from the record high of 78 for January 29. The sky will be generally cloudy, and winds will increase out of the south during the day, averaging 12-22 mph by afternoon. A sprinkle or shower is possible, but most communities will be dry.
TO THE WEST: SPC has ramped up to a “moderate” severe weather risk tomorrow for parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, and the southwest tip of Tennessee. This is where severe weather parameters are maximized; still the primary risk seems to be from damaging straight line winds, but a few tornadoes are also possible in this region, especially tomorrow evening when instability values are higher.
THE ALABAMA SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: The NAM and RPM have trended slower on the 12Z runs, but the GFS remains faster. Still looks like storms will enter Northwest Alabama around midnight tomorrow night, with a solid line of strong to severe storms rolling through the state during the early morning hours Wednesday.
TIMING: The primary risk of severe weather will come from about midnight tomorrow night through 12:00 noon Wednesday. Model inconsistency makes it very hard to give the time for specific locations now, but I would suggest Tuscaloosa will have the line moving through there around 4-6 a.m…. Birmingham 7-9 a.m…. and Anniston/Gadsden 10-11 a.m. This is subject to change due to the model uncertainty.
THREATS: No doubt the big threat will come from damaging straight line winds. There is a chance that wind gusts over 70 mph will be fairly widespread as it won’t take much to transfer the high winds from the low level jet down to the surface. This will knock down many trees and power lines, most likely, as the QLCS (quasi linear convective system) moves to the east/southeast rapidly early Wednesday. Be sure and secure any loose objects outside before you go to bed tomorrow night.
An isolated tornado or two is certainly possible, but not especially likely since the highest low level shear values seem to be displaced from the convection. We note LCL (lifted condensation level) values are fairly high, which is also a negative for tornado formation.
No doubt the rain will be extremely heavy when the band of severe storms moves through, but with the rapid movement of the line major flooding issues are not expected.
See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These two days will be dry and colder; not sure we can get out of the 40s Thursday, and we should be below freezing early Friday. The sky should be mostly sunny both days.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Temperatures should be close to average values for early February; highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s. A weak front will come through Saturday night in dry fashion; a few surge of drier air will arrive Sunday following the front.
Dry weather should continue into early next week; see the Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas.
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I had a great time today visiting with the first graders at Wilsonville Elementary School…. be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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