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Severe Storms Arrive After Midnight

| January 29, 2013 @ 6:21 am

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As always, I encourage you to take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for a good briefing that includes all of the maps and graphics that go along with this discussion.

TO THE WEST: As the day begins the first tornado watch of this severe weather event has been issued for much of Oklahoma, valid until 12:00 noon. Showers and storms will increase over the Southern Plains down into Texas over the next few hours, but around here much of the day will be dry with only isolated showers.

We project a high today between 71 and 75 degrees, which is about 20 degrees above average for late January, not too far from today’s record high of 78 (for Birmingham). The sky will be generally cloudy with a little peek-a-boo sunshine from time to time. South winds will ramp up this afternoon, averaging 12-22 mph.

SPC maintains a “moderate” risk of severe weather today for much of Arkansas, and some of the adjacent states, where severe weather parameters are maximized. A slight risk extends into West Alabama since storms should enter our state after midnight (the Day One Convective Outlook is valid through 6:00 a.m. CST tomorrow).

Much of Alabama is in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather, but SPC does have enhanced 30 percent probabilities over much of East and South Alabama.

Let’s look at the specifics of the Alabama severe weather threat…

TIMING: A line of severe storms should enter Northwest Alabama soon after midnight, then progressive steadily through Alabama. Current estimated arrival times…

Tuscaloosa 3:00-6:00 a.m.
Birmingham 6:00-9:00 a.m.
Anniston/Gadsden 9:00 a.m.-11:00 a.m.

The storms should be totally out of our area (North/Central Alabama) by 11:00 a.m.

THREATS: As discussed here for several days, the primary threat remains damaging straight line winds along the QLCS (quasi linear convective system). The low level jet (around 5,000 feet) is screaming, with winds of over 75 knots, and it won’t take much to transfer that down to the surface. If your county comes under a severe thunderstorm warning, you will need to take it seriously. In fact, with this kind of setup I would take it like a tornado warning since there is potential for widespread damaging winds that exceed 75 mph along the line, which will knock down many trees and power lines, and have the potential to create some structural damage. Not sure I would want to be in a mobile home as this line comes through… just something to think about.

Also, there is adequate shear for a few isolated tornadoes within the line where there are breaks or kinks. And, a discrete cell ahead of the line could produce a tornado, but I am not sure many of these will be able to form due to a capping inversion.

CALL TO ACTION: You will want to get loose objects outside secured tonight before you go to bed; even away from storms winds late tonight will average 15-30 mph with higher gusts. And, of course, be sure you have a good, working, properly programmed NOAA Weather Radio so you won’t miss any warnings. NEVER rely on an outdoor warning siren as your primary method of getting warnings; that is a last resort. Spend a little time with the ABC 33/40 “Do You Have A Plan” site and review all three points (getting the warning, knowing the safe place, and having a readiness kit).

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These two days will feature a good supply of sunshine, and temperatures return to where they should be this time of the year; highs around 50, and lows around freezing.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A cold front will pass through our state Saturday night, and it might squeeze out a few sprinkles, or patches or light rain. The ECMWF even hints at a few snow flurries, but one way or another there won’t be much moisture to work with. Highs over the weekend will be in the 50s, and lows in the 30s. We stay dry early next week as well. See the Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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I will be in Sylvan Springs today to speak to a senior adult group… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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