A Very Cold And Active Pattern Ahead

The Wednesday morning ABC 33/40 Weather Extreme Video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:

All of the big buzz and speculation in coming weeks will be over winter storm threats, but the one thing for certain is that the weather will be very, very cold over much of the continental U.S. for the next two to three weeks, and possibly longer. For parts of the nation, this will be the coldest weather in a number of years, and possibly in many years. I just wanted to make that clear before we try and dive into the specifics of the forecast. THINK COLD.

SHORT TERM: The GFS MOS (model output statistics) have been laughable in recent days, and I sure don’t trust them much going forward. I think it doesn’t understand the snow cover over the nation, which can have a significant influence in the issue. Yesterday much of Cullman County and the northern third of the state never got out of the 30s, while the GFS MOS suggested highs there would be in the low 50s. Today will be similar to yesterday; lots of clouds thanks to the STJ (sub tropical jet) and very chilly temperatures.

The models are really suggesting that tomorrow and Friday will be completely sunny as the STJ is suppressed to the south, but I am not ready to buy into that just yet. I will mention a mix of sun and clouds both days. The weather remains cold, with highs in the 40s. Seems like the NAM is getting a batter handle on temps.

THE WEEKEND: A short wave will bring the risk of some light rain to Alabama late Saturday and Saturday night. Moisture will be limited, but BUFKIT data sure indicates that a wintry mix is possible over the northern counties of Alabama with this feature. Some sleet or snow will probably mix with the rain, especially in areas north of Birmingham. But, surface temperatures should remain above freezing and at this point we don’t expert any travel problems. But, I do stress this is a very difficult pattern for the computer models to resolve specific details, and you need to check in often for possible changes.

A really nice shot of cold air moves in here Sunday… I think we hold in the 30s all day, and there might even be a few snow flurries around.

NEXT WEEK: COLD. Monday and Tuesday at the moment look dry; and like Sunday we will have a very tough time reaching the 40 degree mark. The GFS is hinting that the first winter storm threat for the Deep South will come around Thursday, February 1. Then, another one shows up on February 4. And, yet another one around February 7. It is foolish to even try to be specific about any of these; that is all voodoo. But, the pattern is there and there is no doubt there will be multiple threats along the way. I don’t know, and nobody knows if the biggest threat will be along I-40 or I-20.

We simply have to take them one at a time, and in coming days we will be working on the February 1 threat if it holds together.

Many of you have pointed out the CPC threat map, which shows a winter storm threat for much of North and Central Alabama and Mississippi next week (watch the video). Glad they have hopped on our train, but, they are not able to give specifics either. All we can do at this point is say “stay tuned”.

TEN YEARS OF ALABAMA WEATHER: Our 2007 Alabama severe weather DVD is available now at no charge at locations all across Alabama… see the details here. Be sure and pick one up soon since supplies are limited. We are not able to mail these to you; our sponsors have the exclusive distribution rights (that is how they are free!). The DVD features the incredible run of weather events we have seen here since ABC 33/40 signed on the air in September 1996. Bill Castle put the DVD together, so you know it is good.

STORM ALERT 2007: The annual weather tour around Alabama kicks off a week from tomorrow night at Shelton State Community College in Tuscaloosa… I will be posting the details later today on the stories we will feature this year. Looks like a great show; I hope you can join us along the tour. We also have some very special news about how you get a get a top of the line S.A.M.E. NOAA Weather Radio at an incredible discount.

WEATHER PARTY: Don’t forget to bookmark our sister site, weatherparty.com… all the latest weather related news. Register and you can submit stories and vote on them. There is always something interesting to read over there.

This morning I am delighted to have the opportunity to speak to a group of MICs (meteorologist in charge) from a number of National Weather Service offices around the Deep South about the state of the television industry and now that impacts the severe weather warning process. They are gathered together here in Birmingham today. We are all working to make the severe weather warning process better, and as you know there are some big changes ahead from the NWS side as they get away from county specific warnings and go to the polygon model. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 3:30 this afternoon!

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