Riding The Arctic Express

The Thursday afternoon ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:

This has always been a high traffic blog, but the events in the last week have pushed our number of page views to an all time high, and I thank all of you for reading. Quite an array of comments on the morning discussion, and I am sure many will follow this post. We allow open comments here at all times; the only thing we don’t allow: profanity, personal attacks, or people making their own forecasts on a regular basis. For those that want to forecast the weather, just open a free blogger account and go for it. We are looking for comments on what we write here. Open discussion is a very good thing.

Seems like the e-mail hate crowd is back; the same ones that were sending some really nasty messages back on January 13-14 when we were forecasting a major change to colder weather, while “The Weather Channel” was forecasting highs in the 60s. The cold air came right on time, and as forecast with that event.

While we have nothing against them (in fact, I have many friends that work for these places), we really don’t know what “The Weather Channel”, the National Weather Service, Accuweather, or Country Boy Eddie is forecasting, and that has nothing to do with what is written here. Like I have said here many times, I am simply here to tell you what I think will happen. We do like to coordinate with the National Weather Service when it comes to watches and warnings; we all need to be on the same page for severe weather events. This relationship has grown stronger in recent years, and the growth will continue between the media and the NWS during times of life threatening weather. All I am saying is that I don’t have time or energy to read forecasts issued by all these other people.

I think those firing off the nasty e-mail messages want all forecasts to be the same, or some kind of consensus. Listen to what Margaret Thatcher says about consensus:

“To me, consensus seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies. So it is something in which no one believes and to which no one objects.”

What a great quote.

MOVING ON: Nice to see some sun today, but the air sure is cold. Our Cullman SKYCAM is showing 41 degrees, a northwest wind averaging 18 mph, and a wind chill index of 32. We head down to the mid 20s tonight, and if the wind can go calm, some of the colder valleys across North Alabama will be close to 20 degrees by daybreak tomorrow. The day tomorrow will be dry and cool with a mix of sun and clouds.

THE WEEKEND: Still an interesting forecast. Models are forecasting a surface low to form in the northern Gulf of Mexico, which will spread rain into the state Saturday night. The 12Z NAM run shows 0.28″ of rain for Birmingham, with 2 meter temperatures in the low 40s while most of the rain falls. The 850 mb temp (5,000 feet or so) is now at +1.9 degrees (C). So, looks like mostly rain for Birmingham, but I still think you have to mention some risk of snow or sleet mixed with the rain over the northern third of the state. Light snow seems likely for Tennessee Saturday night, but moisture there will be rather limited. We still don’t expect any major travel problems for Alabama Saturday night or early Sunday with surface temperatures expected to be a little above freezing. But, we will need to keep an eye on this. Events like this make me nervous; but now we will stay the course.

SUNDAY COLD: Much colder air blasts in here Sunday. I think we hold in the 30s most of the day with an icy wind from the north. Maybe even some early morning flurries.

NEXT WEEK: While the big ticket item is the storm at the end of the week, we can’t forget the cold. The weather will be cold all week; the GFS MOS numbers are not good. Even the GFS has Birmingham down to 22 Monday morning; I would not be shocked if a number of places visited the teens at that time.

A wave coming out of Texas should pass south of here on Wednesday, but a stronger wave will bring a winter storm threat to parts of the Deep South Thursday night into Friday (February 1-2). There is no skill now in telling you where the snow will fall, and who will get how much. I won’t even go there, and I would not listen to anyone who tries this.

I have already heard from people today who heard from other people on the street saying I am forecasting snow for Birmingham late next week. Nope. I have no idea if the snow will fall on Birmingham, Memphis, Nashville, or Montgomery. Maybe all four, maybe only one city. I will begin to get specific Monday morning of next week, maybe even over the weekend. Every model run will look different, and there is no point in hanging your hope on any one output.

Having said all of that, climatology suggests the favored track for a low this time of the year is from about 100 miles south of Mobile to a point near Savannah, and then on into the Atlantic. But, that is not a forecast. Hunch here is that the heavy snow strip will fall somewhere between I-20 and I-40 February 1-2.

LONGER RANGE: Following the storm even colder air rolls in here; that might be the coldest air parts of the nation have seen in decades. This will be a very big story. And, yes, another winter storm threat seems likely in the February 3-5 time frame for the Deep South. For somebody across the southern U.S., this will be a winter to remember.

WEATHERBRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast on the web, or on iTunes. Download this week’s show and read more on the Weatherbrains web site here.

WEATHER PARTY: Lots of interesting news over on our sister site, weatherparty.com. This site is all done the readers that have registered; they submit the story ideas and vote on them to determine what shows up on the main page. Pretty cool.

I had a great time this morning at Westwood Baptist Church and their pre-school… watch for those kids today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 on the KIDCAM. I will be live at the circus tonight at the BJCC at 5:00 and 6:00… from there I head to an awards banquet for Trinity Medical Center, and then back to the station. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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