Rain Returns Late Tonight

| February 18, 2013 @ 6:07 am

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NICE WARM-UP TODAY: Another cold morning for Alabama, but not as cold as yesterday when Vic Bell, our Skywatcher at Black Creek reported 13 degrees at daybreak. This morning we have mostly mid 20s over Northeast Alabama, with low to mid 30s elsewhere. The air remains very dry for now, we should warm into the low 60s this afternoon. However, clouds will increase during the day, and south winds will really pick up this afternoon, averaging 15-25 mph by evening ahead of a developing storm system over the Great Plains.

We still believe the main window for rain comes from about midnight tonight through 9:00 a.m. tomorrow. There could be some thunder involved, but we don’t expect any severe weather with no surface based instability. Rain amounts during this 12 hour period should be in the one-half to one inch range. The sun should return tomorrow afternoon as drier air returns to Alabama.

Wednesday will be a sunny and cool day, with a high at or just over 50 degrees.

MORE RAIN: Another wet weather system will impact Alabama later in the week; the main chance of rain and storms will come from about 6:00 p.m. Thursday through 6:00 a.m. Friday. SPC has taken Alabama out of the severe weather risk for Thursday night, and the latest guidance shows no surface based instability, so for now we don’t expect any severe weather issues. And, it looks like another 1/2 to 1 inch rain event.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Friday and Saturday’s weather forecast is a low confidence one due to model inconsistency. While the 06Z GFS keeps the main chance of rain on these two days over South Alabama, other runs have shown a chance of rain statewide. It all depends on the location of a stalled front, and the potential for a wave to form on that front. For now we will keep some risk of rain in the forecast on these day two days until we get better model clarity.

One way or another Sunday looks pleasant, with a good supply of sunshine and a high around 60 degrees. Then, another wet weather system is due in here Monday of next week, and it looks like strong storms could be involved.

LATE FEBRUARY INTO EARLY MARCH: The GFS continues to advertise an active pattern with frequent rain/storm systems as we get into the spring tornado season. See the Weather Xtreme video for complete details, along with maps and graphics.

STORM ALERT 2013 IN CLANTON THIS WEEK: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama continues through February. We will share lessons learned after the April 27, 2011 generational tornado event, along with other amazing weather stories. Learn how to keep your family safe during severe weather, and have a chance to win some cool prizes as well. Here are the remaining Storm Alert tour dates…

February 21 Clanton – Jeff State Performing Arts Center
February 26 Ohatchee – Ohatchee High School
February 28 Clay – Clay/Chalkville High School

All shows begin at 6:30… be sure and get there early to get a good seat.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We produced this week’s show Friday night… scroll down for the show notes.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Rock Quarry Elementary in Tuscaloosa… and then I will be at Alabama Power HQ in downtown Birmingham early this afternoon. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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