New Day One Severe Weather Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center’s new day one forecast for the country is out, and there is little change in the thinking.

The forecasters at SPC have posted their standard severe weather risk outlook for today. It goes into effect at 12:00z, or 7:00 a.m. CDT. It covers much of Mississippi, Alabama and northwestern Georgia into eastern Tennessee, a small part of western North Carolina and eastern Kentucky.

An upper level disturbance over the northern Gulf is triggering a few showers and storms south of the Florida Panhandle early this morning. Interestingly, that feature has been well predicted by the models, but is of little consequence for our forecast.

Surface low pressure is forming over Arkansas. A few showers and storms were over Arkansas. They become more numerous as you head north into the Missouri Bootheel and southern Illinois. Some showers will likely break out over Alabama later this morning and skies will start out fairly cloudy.

Drier air aloft will work into the state later in the morning, unveiling increasing sunshine. Temperatures will warm into the 70s and dew points will rise into the 60s. Colder air aloft moving into the area will create instability. By afternoon, instability values will reach 1,000-1,5000 joules/kg and lifted index values will reach -7. Showers and storms will start to form by 3-4 o’clock. These storms will have sufficient general wind shear to result in organized updrafts. These storms could become severe, with damaging winds the greatest threat.

We can’t say there is no threat of a tornado, but the threat is very small, since we won’t have sufficient low level shear to produce the turning necessary in the atmosphere to allow them to form.

A line of storms will form ahead of a cold front that will push into Northwest Alabama just before sunset. There will also be a threat of damaging winds with these storms as they push southeastward during the evening.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather