Severe Weather Threat Update

The latest convective outlook has the SPC maintaining a large portion of the Southeast in a slight risk for severe weather today.This risk includes much of North Central Alabama including the southern and western portions of the Birmingham Metro. The risk cuts across the just east of downtown. The weather is fairly calm right now across our area with a few isolated showers. Most areas should see similar conditions through most of the afternoon.

Low pressure along the Gulf Coast is expected to lift northeast across the Mississippi River Valley today. Behind it a cold front is progressing east southeast. Out a head of the low, a warm front is expected to slowly lift north and east. This is the features we are currently watching the most. The farther north and inland the front makes it, the better the chance of severe weather for Central Alabama. Right now this boundary is analyzed along the Gulf Coast. North of the front temperatures on are in the 40s and 50s, dew points are about the same. South of the front, these observations are in the 60s and 70s. This will provide the instability needed for the severe weather.

As the low begins to intensify we should see the stationary front begin to lift north as a warm front and accelerate. Severe weather can be expected along and south of the warm front as the warm front is bringing the warm unstable air northwards. Heading into the evening, thunderstorms should be developing across the Southeast. With extra low-level shear over the region, the severe weather will last into and through the overnight hours. This is always the most dangerous type of severe weather event, one that impacts areas at night. The extra shear could make conditions more favorable for tornadoes as well, especially over southern sections of Alabama. The main threat across out part of the state could be damaging winds and large hail. As always, along warm front boundaries we can see some extra spin with the veering winds and some tornadoes may be possible along the warm front lifting north. Storms should last overnight and should clear the state by tomorrow morning.

Radar check shows fairly calm conditions across Alabama and Mississippi right now. Thunderstorms to our southeast and a lone storm over east central Texas. Heading through the rest of the afternoon and evening, the radar will be filling in as more showers and thunderstorms develop. Looks to be a very long night for many areas across the Southeast, as strong and severe storms are forecast.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather