Severe Weather Threat Remains

Even though it has been calm for most of the night, there are a few strong storms that have reached severe limits this morning. The SPC maintains a threat for severe weather across portion of northern Alabama. Over the last hour or so, storms have intensified and continue to produce gusty winds, some hail and there is still a chance of a very isolated and small spin-up tornado to occur anywhere in these storms.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED…S CENTRAL AND SERN KY/MIDDLE AND ERN TN/NERN
AL/NWRN GA

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 190652Z – 190815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…40 PERCENT

SUMMARY…LOW-END WIND/BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS
PRESENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION…LATEST RADAR TRENDS REVEAL SOME
INTENSIFICATION/SHARPENING OF A LONG-LIVED/FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. HOWEVER…DOWNWARD
LIGHTNING TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONFIRM OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
REVEALING LIMITED/RELATIVELY SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THESE
THERMODYNAMIC LIMITATIONS WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR
APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

HAVING SAID THAT…DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE STRONG…WITH
VEERING/RAPIDLY INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT TO IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AT
1.5 KM AND 70 KT AT 3 KM PER AREA VAD WIND PROFILES. THIS DEGREE OF
SHEAR WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY SUPPORTING AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A
BRIEF TORNADO REMAINS NON-ZERO — PARTICULARLY WITHIN A CUSP ALONG
THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THUS…WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
ENVIRONMENTAL AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather