Welcome To Winter

The Monday morning edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:

A quick look at observations from the ABC 33/40 SKYCAM Network, as well as our Skywatchers, at 5:30, as I write this:

Attalla 12
Hueytown 12
Hackleburg 14
Cheaha State Park 14
Hamilton (EMA Office) 15
Trussville 18
Gadsden 18

J.B. will have a full rundown on lows a little later this morning.

LOOKING AHEAD: Will be interesting to see if the rest of the world is still forecasting highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s for the next seven days. The pattern is very cold, and a storm system Wednesday night into Thursday will is the immediate concern. I have been very confident about the overall pattern I have discussed here for a long time; but computer models and us humans will really have a a hard time with details. Below is the way I think it goes now, but understand this will probably change as we stare the system down in the next day or so.

TODAY: Sunny with a high in the 40 to 44 degree range. Not as windy as yesterday. Tonight will not be as cold with clouds increasing ahead of the next cold air push.

TOMORROW: A fresh supply of cold air arrives tomorrow. The sky will be cloudy at times, and again the afternoon should be in the 40 to 45 degree range. Tomorrow night, we get very cold again, and by early Wednesday morning we will drop into the low 20s, with teens for the colder locations.

WEDNESDAY: Cold and dry during the day; the NAM suggests we will be in the 30s all day, which I believe is the correct solution. Clouds will increase again during the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING: This is the period where snow and ice will be a problem for parts of the Deep South. As the precipitation begins Wednesday night, I do think there will be a period of evaporative cooling, and this will set a thermal profile for some freezing rain and possibly snow for North Alabama. If we do have significant evaporative cooling, then freezing rain and icy roads will be possible as far south as roughly I-20. To the north, as the cold air is deeper, snow will be possible mainly over the Tennessee Valley, along and north of U.S. 72. This snow should extend into Tennessee, and accumulation is likely.

Jason Simpson ran BUFKIT this morning (an excellent mesoscale forecasting tool), and is is showing 1/2 inch of ice accumulation for Northwest Alabama late Wednesday night into Thursday morning in the midnight to 6am time frame.

So, here is a summary of our current thinking in the time frame from 12:00 midnight Wednesday night through 8:00 a.m. Thursday:

Freezing rain is possible in the broad area from I-20 to U.S. 72 (the general area from Birmingham to Huntsville); within that zone there could be significant ice accumulation on exposed surfaces, especially north of Birmingham. Travel issues are a real possibility. Birmingham is on the borderline, as usual. A degree or two will make the difference between icy travel and a cold rain. Really tough to call now since so much of this will be on the mesoscale and not identified by computer models.

Snow is possible along and north of U.S. 72 (Huntsville north into Tennessee), and accumulation is likely. Again, there will be some travel problems, needless to say.

Winter storm watches will most likely be required for some of these areas…

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY: A cold rain will fall on much of Alabama; we should be in the 30s most of the day along the I-20 corridor, but temperatures should be above freezing after 8:00 a.m. or so. Snow will continue to the north, mainly over Tennessee, where very significant accumulations are likely.

FRIDAY: Yet another cold air blast arrives; there might be a few snow flurries, but those northern branch systems have very limited moisture.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: We might stay below freezing all day Saturday. See the video for the ECMWF look at the low level cold on Saturday; for much of the nation east of the Rockies this will be the coldest day in about ten years, and for some in 20 years. The weather should be dry. Sunday morning we head town into the 10 to 15 degree range; possibly single digits.

NEXT WEEK: I really don’t want to get into specifics with the model madness. Our ole pal the GFS has shown everything from a snow storm to dry and moderating weather conditions. Climatology does favor another storm early in the week, but you know, lets take them one at a time.

STORM ALERT 2007: We begin our annual weather tour across Alabama Thursday evening at 7:00… we will be at the Shelton State Community College Gym; get there early for a good seat! Bill Castle has put together a really wonderful show this year.

WEATHER PARTY: Get the latest weather related news over on WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register and you can submit links and vote on them.

I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted today by 3:30 this afternoon… STAY WARM.

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