The Return of Cooler Weather

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Cooler weather is returning once again as May shapes up as a fairly cool month. This cool spell appears likely to be rather short lived with just a couple of cool days to enjoy.

A surface high pressure system will be settling into the Southeast US over the next couple of days as the center of the surface high migrate from Iowa today to Central Mississippi by midday on Monday. A fairly deep upper trough will move off the East Coast by Tuesday, but as it does a strong northwesterly flow will usher in some very cool air. Monday morning appears likely to be the coolest with morning lows dipping pretty close to 40 degrees. This means that some of those typically cooler locations are likely to drop into the 30s. While I do not expect to see any freezing values, it is possible those colder and sheltered locations may see some light frost. Yes, it is nearly a third of the way through May.

An upper ridge moves over us Tuesday and Wednesday so we should see a nice warming trend as we see highs climb back into the lower 80s by Wednesday. The approach of a weak upper trough on Thursday as the surface high settles over North Florida will signal a return of moisture and the possibility of daily scattered showers through the weekend. By Sunday we see a strong upper trough coming out of the northern Rockies into the Central Plains which should bring a surface low into southern Minnesota with a cold front trailing southwestward into Texas. But we should remain in a summer-ish like pattern with small chances for mainly afternoon showers.

Nice to see very little severe weather potential as defined by SPC. We have been fortunate to have a somewhat uneventful spring severe weather season, and I hope this pattern continues as the severe weather season/potential swings out of the Southeast and into the Central Plains.

Almost no rain for the next five days until we see scattered showers possibly on Thursday, and even then the rainfall amounts will be light.

The GFS long range projections are holding onto the idea of another shot at some chilly air around the 22nd of May. This should present us with some rain chances on the 20th and 21st and perhaps a severe weather threat, too. The idea of a rather huge upper ridge over the Central US May 26th and 27th is a little watered down. We are still likely to be under weak ridging, but this run of the GFS puts the big upper ridge much further west with a complex pattern with an upper low undercutting that ridge. But we expect changes this far out!

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I had a wonderful time working at the Buck Creek Festival yesterday and Friday. Our festival committee did a great job of putting together another fabulous festival, our 12th. Lots of great food, crafts, kids activities, and tremendous music. Two small lines of showers even helped out by dropping the temperature about 10 degrees with dumping more than a little light rain which dampened the dust! Tired from this event, but already looking forward to the 13th festival in 2014! James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video by 7 am Monday. Enjoy this wonderfully cool Mothers Day. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather