Moving Toward the 90s

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Looks like we are headed for a real taste of summer as an upper ridge grabs hold of the weather pattern for the next several days. An upper trough positioned over eastern Kentucky is helping to generate showers from Atlanta back to the northwest to near Nashville. The presence of the upper level trough means that showers remain a possibility primarily over the eastern side of the state and up into the northeastern corner. But as the upper ridge takes a stronger foothold in the pattern, we should see shower free weather for Monday and Tuesday. But with that upper ridge I expect temperatures to climb to around 90s degrees for highs with lower 90s possible on Tuesday.

By Wednesday we will be watching the approach of the strong upper trough that will be responsible for the Day 1 and Day 2 moderate risk areas for severe weather back in the Central Plains states. That trough is forecast to move across the Mississippi River on Wednesday increasing our chances for rain and thunderstorms. For now, the risk of severe weather appears to be low, but we will keep a wary eye on this system. While not a clear cut severe weather setup just yet, the warm weather and the ultimate strength of the trough will dictate whether or not we will see severe storms.

The pattern becomes a little more complex on Thursday along with model differences between the GFS and the European. The European tends to phase the upper systems while the GFS does not. At this point, I’m not sure which of the solutions will be correct. Following the GFS, the main trough goes by us on Thursday but another short wave comes out of the northwest right behind the first one. This second short wave would keep us in shower chances into early Saturday, but we could see a reasonably good weekend as showers end early Saturday with the passage of that short wave and a nice Sunday.

Right now, the 5-day QPF forecast suggests less than a half inch of rain coming primarily in the Wednesday and Thursday time frame.

Looking into week two, the upper ridge is expected to build into the Southeast strongly bringing a warm end to May. But the GFS continues to hint at some tropical mischief around the first of June. Yesterday, the GFS showed a well defined surface system coming out of the Yucatan into the eastern Gulf just offshore from Tampa. As expected, the GFS 24 hours later has some changes. While it still shows a fairly well defined surface system coming out of the western Caribbean, it now comes across Cuba into the Bahamas on June 2nd. So you see why we dub the long range projections as voodoo country since it can be all over the place from one run to another. But it’s fun to watch how it all evolves.

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Be sure to watch the video to see the photo of the tornado my friend, John Huntington, caught in Kansas yesterday. Plus a big thanks to all the wonderful folks at the Fairfield facility of US Steel. I was invited to participate with them in their Family Safety Day, and I had a great time talking weather with folks. And the hamburgers and hot dog lunch was great! James Spann is expected back tomorrow morning with the latest edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. I hope your Sunday is a good one. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather