Clouds and Showers Keep Heat Down

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It’s looking like another one of those unusually cool and wet July days for Central Alabama with showers and thunderstorms likely for much of the area. Moisture increased significantly yesterday as dew points climbed from the lower 60s yesterday to the lower 70s today. The combination of clouds and widespread showers and thunderstorms should help to limit the highs to the lower 80s. While there is a small risk that an isolated thunderstorm could become marginally severe today, the mid-level lapse rates are weak suggesting the risk is small. Showers and thunderstorms should increase fairly quickly in coverage during the late morning and early afternoon.

While we will see a reduction in shower coverage Monday, it looks like the beach will remain wet with showers likely today and Monday. Highs at the beach will be in the mid 80s.

The upper closed low was located over the Missouri Bootheel this morning with a trough axis stretching down into Mississippi. The upper low is still forecast to move to the southwest fairly quickly as an upper ridge builds into the Ohio River Valley. It is this upper ridge that we will be dealing with for much of the upcoming week. While moisture in the atmosphere will vary a little from day to day, we will stay moist with the driving force in shower development that of daytime heating. So look for some shower potential just about every day. There is some indication that Tuesday might be a dry day for Central Alabama that due to a slightly drier northeasterly flow aloft coming down the Appalachians. Not sure we have the skill to call that since moisture variations will be slight and precipitable water values drop only to about 1.4″. So the forecast will have to remain somewhat monotonous with shower chances each day. It should get a little warmer by mid-week with highs into the lower 90s.

By the end of the week, the GFS is showing a weakening of the upper ridge as a strong upper low moves across Canada once again creating a slight troughiness over the eastern half of the US. The development of the trough over the eastern US will once again present as a weakness aloft by Saturday which could help to enhance the chances for showers and thunderstorms into next weekend.

No specific slight risk areas identified today by SPC, however, there is a minimal threat of severe storms in our area and into Texas where the upper low will be moving. And the tropics have become quieter with no specific area under the watchful eyes of the National Hurricane Center.

And not much change in the overall pattern into week two or voodoo country. The GFS 372-hour forecast does show an upper low over the Gulf, but that forecast is a long way out to confidently suggest any tropical mischief.

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James Spann will be back first thing Monday morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Be mindful of the thunderstorms today – and everyday – since lightning presents a danger even with the garden variety of thunderstorms. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather