Clouds and Showers Persist

| July 20, 2013 @ 7:06 am

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Looks like we are dealing with a fairly complex pattern for the weekend and early next week that should keep the weather somewhat cloudy with a few peeks at the sun from time to time plus giving us good chances for showers and thunderstorms. The main feature is an upper low located over Southwest Louisiana this morning. There are some weak disturbances rotating around that low that are helping to assist shower development with a good area of moisture convergence stretching from about Pensacola south-southwest into the Gulf. Moisture continues high across much of the Southeast US as seen in precipitable water values. This all means that we are going to see showers and thunderstorms today and Sunday with showers numerous today and Sunday. I have some concerns that it might even be somewhat wetter than expected.

As the low over Southwest Louisiana moves into Northeast Mexico, a shortwave trough will move out of the Central Plains states on Sunday and Monday. This should add to diurnal heating to keep numerous showers in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. As we get into the middle of the week, the northwesterly flow pattern sticks with us with a ridge in the west and a trough along the East Coast. The GFS hints at the presence of a frontal boundary coming into the area, however, we don’t usually see that occurring in July and August. MOS guidance shows a slight dip in dew points around Thursday which suggests slightly drier air coming into the area. However, I think we’ll see showers a possibility all week as showers become more scattered from Wednesday and into the weekend.

Temperatures will continue to stay below seasonal averages with highs mainly in the middle and upper 80s – not bad for July in the South. Averages for Birmingham are 91 for highs and 72 for lows.

Tropics are quiet for now with just the cloud mass over the northeastern Gulf which is not likely to develop into a tropical storm. SPC has outlooked a standard slight risk along and just ahead of a cold front moving through the Northeast US. Main threat is likely to be damaging wind and marginally severe hail.

Showers continue likely at the beach for much of the weekend. I do not expect to see rain occur all day but sunshine may be limited to just a couple of hours total today and Sunday as showers and thunderstorms pass by. Highs will be in the middle 80s along the beach.

Looking out into voodoo country, the overall pattern of the ridge in the west and a trough in the east continues. This is especially good for us because it keeps the heat down significantly as we have been seeing. The GFS does show a substantial trough around the 2nd of August, one that could conceivably drive a cold front into the Southeast US. Based on the trough strength, we might see some drier air get here. But this is voodoo, so I would not be surprised to see the trough strength change on future runs.

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I’ll be filling in for Ashley Brand tonight, so you can catch the latest weather forecast at 6 and 10 pm on ABC 3340. I’ll have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted first thing on Sunday morning. Have a great day and Godspeed.


Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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