Dorian Disorganized and Weaker

Dorian is moving over some cooler water temps and through a higher shear environment. The storm has become disorganized compared to what we have seen the last couple of days. As he tracks west across the Atlantic, he will remain under higher shear and is expected to weaken even more.

By the end of the weekend, shear will decrease and we could see Dorian become better organized again. Weaker storms are influenced more by the the Bermuda High in the North-Central Atlantic and these storms usually have more westward tracks than stronger storms. The models are picking up on this as they have started shifting Dorian’s track westward later in the forecast period.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…17.7N 43.4W
ABOUT 1295 MI…2085 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 43.4 WEST. DORIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH…33 KM/H…AND A
GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED…AND SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.

Tags: Dorian

Category: Tropical