Tropical Issues By The Weekend

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QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW: In the short term, our weather won’t change very much. We expect a mixture of clouds and sunshine today and tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 80s. Can’t rule out an isolated shower or two, but the chance of rain is so small that we won’t mention it in the formal forecast for now. Pretty much the same type weather we have enjoyed over the past few days.

TROPICAL TROUBLE FOR THE WEEKEND: We will deal with an approaching cold front this weekend, supported by a long wave upper trough over the central part of the nation, and a tropical system moving up from the south. No doubt we will have rain to deal with, and the best chance will come Saturday night into Sunday. The wild card, of course, is the tropical situation.

BETTER ORGANIZED: The disturbance in the Yucatan Channel is clearly well organized this morning, and should be upgraded to Tropical Depression Twelve at any time. I expect it to be Tropical Storm Karen before the day is over. It will be pulled north, toward the Central Gulf Coast, due to the long wave upper trough over North America, but the exact point of landfall remains up for debate with considerable spread in model output. Here is what we know this morning…

TRACK: The GFS, the primary American global model, remains an outlier to the east, suggesting landfall around Destin/Panama City Saturday night. Other models are faster, and more to the west. While there remains a good bit of spread, the general consensus suggests potential Tropical Storm Karen will move make landfall very close to the Alabama coast during the day Saturday.

INTENSITY: With increasing upper shear and cooler sea water temperatures near the coast, this should remain below hurricane strength. I would suggest sustained winds will be in the 40-55 mph range at the time of landfall, with potential for higher gusts in spots. There is good model agreement on this idea.

IMPACT ON THE COAST: The heaviest rain should be near and east of the circulation center, and some communities over Mobile and Baldwin Counties in Alabama, and the Florida panhandle, could see 4 to 6 inches of rain with flooding potential. Also, an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out in the spiral bands to the east of the storm center during the day Saturday. Seas and surf, needless to say, will be very rough. Weather conditions will improve on the coast Sunday, with beautiful weather for much of next week if you have a trip planned.

INLAND PARTS OF ALABAMA: While a few widely scattered showers are possible, it looks like a good part of the day Saturday will be dry for the northern half of the state. The best chance of rain Saturday will come over Southwest Alabama, especially south of U.S. 84 and west of I-65. We should see a little filtered sunshine, and the high Saturday should be in the low 80s. Humidity levels will be rather high as tropical air moves northward.

Clearly our best chance of rain will come late Saturday night into Sunday, and the amount of rain we see around here (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden, etc) will be determined by the track of the tropical system. I still believe the heaviest rain in Alabama will be east of I-65 Sunday, with lighter amounts to the west. But, we just don’t know now; we will need to see a well defined track, and look at the storm structure as it gets into the northern Gulf. We will mention rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch for North/Central Alabama, with potential for up to 2 inches closer to the Georgia border.

I would say the threat of isolated small tornadoes this far inland is rather small with a system like this, but can’t be completely ruled out. The rain will move out Sunday night as the cold front moves on to the east.

See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the Alabama/Georgia State game at Bryant-Denny Stadium Saturday (11:21a CT kickoff), clouds will increase, but for now we will mention only an outside risk of a brief shower during the game (best chance of widespread rain comes after the final whistle). Around 80 at kickoff, with low 80s possible by the second half.

Auburn will host Ole Miss at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday evening (6:00p CT kickoff); this is a very tough call now due to the uncertainty with the tropical system. I can see a situation where there could be no rain at all, or a situation where a steady, soaking rain could become a problem. It all depends on the track of “Karen”; for now I will mention just a chance of rain during the game. Plan on taking the rain gear, and keep your fingers crossed the big rains come in late Saturday night after the game is over.

UAB has a home game against Florida Atlantic (2:00p CT kickoff) at Legion Field; the sky will be cloudy, and for now the risk of really significant rain looks rather small, although a brief shower is certainly possible. Temperatures will be in the low 80s at kickoff.

NEXT WEEK: Cooler and drier air arrives, and I still think there is a good chance we visit the 40s early Tuesday morning.

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I will be speaking today at Forest Oaks Elementary in Chelsea, and Brookside Elementary in Graysville… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: tropical

Category: Alabama's Weather