Cold and Wet Ahead

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A very special thanks to the nearly 300 people who attended the Storm Alert Xtreme at the BJCC yesterday. I really had no idea how many people would attend since we’ve really had a relatively quiet period of severe weather since April 27, 2011. It was also great to see how many of you were new to storm spotting. As James noted, we need lots of eyes out there in order to make the warning process better for everyone. Again, thanks so much for spending much of Saturday learning about severe weather in Alabama.

No severe weather going on out there this morning as we start the day on a very chilly note. Freezing temperatures cover nearly all of Central Alabama with some spots dipping into the middle 20s. With a stiff north wind today, temperatures for the afternoon will climb only into the lower 40s for most spots. Looks like a great day to bundle up if you are headed out.

Clouds will be on the increase tonight and Monday as we ramp up quickly into a real soaking rain situation. There are some concerns about winter precipitation before and after this develop storm system. Right now it looks like we really will not see any wintery precipitation of consequences. Some winter weather advisories/warnings are already posted for parts of Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma for today and tonight. As the precipitation moves/develops eastward and precipitation starts here Monday afternoon, we could see a transition period where the precipitation begins as sleet. I think any sleet that occurs will fall only for a relatively brief period and I do not expect any sleet accumulation.

As the surface low moves along the Gulf Coast, we’ll see several waves of rain with rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches likely. At this writing, I do not expect to see any flooding problems as the rain comes in several batches, but we’ll have to be vigilant on how this develops and watch for problems that might crop up. The surface low will move across North Florida Wednesday as a double barreled surface low configuration brings rain and wintery precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic states and the Appalachians. Since this will coincide with the biggest travel day of the year, there could be travel issues along the East Coast of the US with rain and low ceilings slowing down air travel and ground transportation. The rain could change over to snow for much of the Mid-Atlantic states area.

For us, it looks like the precipitation will come to an end on Wednesday. We may see the precipitation end with some snow flurries, however, it is always a NASCAR-type race as to whether the cold air can arrive BEFORE the moisture departs. Often times we see the cold air arriving later when the moisture is gone and we get zip. That will probably be the case this time, but there is a possibility for a brief period of snow flurries. I hate to overuse the term “watch and see,” but there really is not a lot of skill to forecasting snow occurrence in these situations three days out. Just know it is a possibility, but we typically do not see any significant accumulations in these situations.

An upper ridge and surface high will end the week and take us into the weekend. Looking out into voodoo country, the pattern remains very progressive with a continued series of short waves moving through the fast flow, but for the moment we don’t see anything of a serious nature.

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James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video by 7 am on Monday. I hope you have a great Sunday and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather