New Day One Out – Moderate Risk into NW Alabama

The folks at the Storm Prediction center have posted the new Day One Severe Weather Outlook for today.  There are some interesting developments:

…Not much change in the thinking, although the SPC has ramped up their wording that there could be “several tornadoes, some of which could be significant” in the Moderate Risk area Saturday afternoon and evening, with the threat continuing eastward into the Slight Risk area overnight.

….The Moderate Risk (enhanced threat of severe weather) now extends from extreme southern Kentucky across the western half of Tennessee, southeastern Arkansas, much of Mississippi and Louisiana and extends into Northwest Alabama.  It includes the Quad Cities and Hamilton.

…The Slight Risk (their standard forecast term for organized severe weather) extends from Columbus OH to Victoria Texas.

…In Alabama, the slight risk covers areas east of the Moderate Risk over ot a line from Wedowee to Shorter to Andalusia.  It includes places like Huntsville, Gadsden, Cullman, Jasper, Anniston, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Demopolis, Montgomery, Greenville and Mobile

Instabilities in the 500-1,00 j/kg range look likely in this area, and wind shear will be abundant, leading to rotating thunderstorm updrafts. Low level shear will result in the tornado threat and high winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will set the stage for damaging winds.

Folks in the risk area will receive their their heads up via MyWARN at 7 a.m. when the outlook officially goes into effect. MyWARN is the simplest and easiest to use severe weather notification app for iOS and Android. Get it for a one time charge of $9.99. Learn more at www.MyWARN.com.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather