Chilly Christmas

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Merry Christmas to All!! It is a cold, crisp Christmas morning across Central Alabama with temperatures mainly in the lower 20s. Skywatcher Vic Bell reported 18 at Black Creek in Etowah County. Brrrrrrr comes to mind! But take heart, the clear, cold, crisp morning will lead into a sunny afternoon with highs warmer than yesterday as the temperature climbs all the way to the upper 40s. The 30-year average high for December 25th in Birmingham is 54, so we are definitely colder than we typically see.

The weather pattern remains very active with a series of short waves moving through the basic long wave trough anchored over the eastern US. No real issues in the forecast except nailing the temperatures until we get to Saturday. A short wave trough is forecast by the GFS to strengthen over East Texas which should result in a surface low forming in the Gulf of Mexico. The short wave weakens and moves rapidly to North Carolina on Sunday taking the surface low into the Atlantic just off the coast of New Jersey. The atmosphere appears to warm enough that this will not produce any serious winter weather problems, but I’m sure a lot of forecasters will be keeping an eye on the evolution of this system in future runs. For now, it appears that the main rain threat for Alabama will remain over the southern counties. But the exact position and track of the surface low will govern that so we may need to adjust future forecasts.

Another strong wave drops into the long wave trough reinforcing the cold air over the Central and Southeast US on Monday. The 540 thickness contour is forecast to dip nearly to New Orleans by late Monday. No winter weather issues expected as Gulf moisture remains cut off. The long wave position remains essentially over the eastern half of the country Tuesday as the trough weakens somewhat, but it is still going to be cold as we enter the first of 2014.

And the GFS continues to maintain a cold look to the pattern for Week 2. The GFS even whips up some interesting winter weather possibilities around the 3rd of January as some extremely cold air dives southward to the Gulf Coast. I’m certainly not going to jump on this as a forecast just yet, but there has begun to be some continuity to the idea from run to run, so it will be interesting to see how it develops.

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I’ll have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Thursday morning. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather