Rain Arrives Tonight; Two Big Cold Shots To Follow

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HAPPY NEW YEAR! Welcome to 2014… thanks to all of you for your support, friendship, and encouragement over the years. It is quite an honor to bring you these weather updates every day, and it sure looks like January 2014 will be interesting and active.

RAIN ON THE WAY: The sub-tropical jet stream will keep mid to high level clouds over Alabama today, and light rain is possible over the southern half of the state. We note a few sprinkles early this morning near Montgomery and Auburn. The day should be a little warmer… a decent chance we see low 50s this afternoon, very close to our average high of 53 (for January 1 in Birmingham).

Rain is most likely for our part of the state late tonight into tomorrow morning; I still say the main 12 hour window for wet weather will come from 2:00 a.m. until 2:00 p.m. tomorrow. The air will be cool and stable, so no thunder. Amounts of around 1/2 inch are likely here.

COLD SHOT NUMBER ONE: Temperatures will fall into the 30s tomorrow afternoon as the rain moves out with a strong northwest wind of 15-25 mph, making it feel even colder. No doubt there could be a few snow flurries in the colder air tomorrow afternoon over the northern half of Alabama, but they won’t amount to much.

We are projecting a low Friday morning between 17 and 20 degrees for most places; during the day Friday the sun returns in full force, but we won’t make it out of the 30s despite that sunny sky. A brisk north wind will push the wind chill index down into the single digits here Friday morning.

OUR WEEKEND: We start the day Saturday well down in the 20s, but we warm nicely during the day, with a good supply of sunshine and a high around 50 degrees. No doubt it will be the nicest day over the weekend.

Clouds increase Sunday, and we will mention a chance of showers ahead of an Arctic cold front. The best chance of rain will come during the afternoon, and like Saturday, the high will be near 50 degrees.

BITTERLY COLD AIR NEXT WEEK: The coldest air so far this season will invade Alabama Monday with a biting north wind. We might see a few snow flurries in the cold air, but for now we see no issues with snow or ice; the cold is the big deal. We will have a hard time getting past the mid 30s Monday afternoon, and by Tuesday morning it looks like a low between 10 and 15 degrees for most North Alabama communities.

We will have a very hard time getting above freezing during the day Tuesday, and a north wind of 10-20 mph will keep the wind chill index very low. Wednesday morning should be cold again, with a low back down in the 10 to 15 degree range.

COLDEST IN YEARS: Here is a look at the coldest temperature in Birmingham over the past several years…

2013 18 (November 28)
2012 20 (February 12)
2011 16 (January 13 and January 14)
2010 14 (January 5 and January 11)
2009 12 (January 16)
2008 13 (January 3)

As far as I can tell from a quick database analysis, the last time Birmingham had a single digit low was on January 24, 2003 when our low was 7 degrees. It is very hard to see single digit cold here without snow.

PREPARE NOW: You know the routine… when it gets this cold in Alabama things to do include wrapping the exposed pipes, bringing in the pets, and checking on elderly people who might not have an adequate source of heat. And, wives, please bring in your husbands so they don’t freeze to death.

Keep an eye on the forecast here in coming days as we will be fine tuning the forecast temperatures.

SUGAR BOWL WEATHER: For Alabama fans headed to New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl (tomorrow night; 7:30p CT kickoff), the weather will be generally cloudy in New Orleans through tomorrow. Expect periods of rain today and tonight (no severe thunder, just good ole fashioned rain). The bulk of the rain should be over by tomorrow morning… highs in New Orleans today and tomorrow will be in the 50s. The high will drop into the 40s there Friday, but the sun will return.

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP WEATHER: For now it looks like routine southern California weather for Auburn fans making the trip out west. No rain for the next 7-10 days at Pasadena, CA; highs are in the 70s, with lows between 47 and 52. Lots of sun.

BBVA COMPASS BOWL: A perfect day for football in Birmingham Saturday, when Vanderbilt and Houston match up at 12:00 noon. Lots of sun; the kickoff temperature will be near 42 degrees, rising to near 50 by the final whistle. No risk of rain.

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We are on a holiday schedule, so just one Weather Xtreme video today… back to the two a day schedule tomorrow. I will have a fresh discussion posted here later this afternoon….

Tags: wet

Category: Alabama's Weather