A Dry Summer Pattern Sets Up

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DEWPOINT WATCH: The dewpoint has dropped to 52 at Fort Payne, and 53 at Muscle Shoals at mid-afternoon. Birmingham’s dewpoint is down to 55, and that certainly bodes well for a cool summer night ahead.

Birmingham’s record low for tomorrow morning (July 15) is 51 degrees, recorded in 1967. No, we won’t get that low, but mid to upper 50s are likely for the cooler valleys around here by daybreak tomorrow. We figure the official low at the Birmingham Airport will be in the low 60s.

Dry air stays in place at least through mid-week, so no rain for a few days. Humidity values will remain low, and nights pleasant.

Quite frankly, the 12Z GFS looks really dry through the weekend. I guess a few afternoon showers might pop up somewhere by Saturday and Sunday, but they should be few and far between. Daytime highs will remain mostly between 90 and 95 degrees.

LONG RANGE: Moisture levels slowly increase next week, and scattered afternoon storms will gradually return in a week or so to Alabama. Still no sign of any serious weather anomalies through the rest of July.

TROPICAL WEATHER: We have an interesting flare of convection in the northern Gulf of Mexico… that is along the surface front that is just offshore. Sometimes tropical systems can form in this situation, and the water is really warm, so lets keep an eye on the backyard. Models move a broad low pressure area from this region northeast in coming days; the moisture remains well to the southeast of here.

Bertha is moving slowly and erratically out to sea… but she is no hurry. The system is packing sustained winds of 65 mph and the center is only about 40 miles east of the island of Bermuda. No threat to the U.S. mainland.

And, invest 94L looks good in the Atlantic near 12N/45W… that could become a tropical depression later tonight or tomorrow, and ultimately tropical storm Cristobal as it moves toward the Caribbean.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Tonight our guest will be John R. Mecikalski from UAH discussing some exciting new satellite technology that could help us forecast afternoon thunderstorms on a summer day. The new show should be up by 10:00 p.m. or so.

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I had a great time seeing the kids this morning Vestavia Central Elementary School… be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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