Dolly Heads For The South Texas Coast

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SUMMER HEAT: Temperatures around Alabama at 2:00 include 100 at Tuscaloosa, 99 at Muscle Shoals, Gadsden, and Auburn, and 98 at Anniston and Montgomery. Birmingham was reporting 97. Nasty stuff. But, the good news is that dewpoints have mixed down into the upper 50s and low 60s, and humidity values are in the 20 and 30 percent range.

We do have a few “popcorn” showers and storms on radar, mainly over the southern half of the state… all of these will fade away once the sun goes down.

Our weather won’t be all that much different tomorrow; very hot and hazy, perhaps a little increase in the number of afternoon storms with slightly cooler air aloft expected. Afternoon highs tomorrow will be back in the mid to upper 90s, perhaps touching 100 degrees in spots over West Alabama.

HEAT RELIEF: Both the NAM and the GFS suggest heat levels will drop considerably Wednesday; both models show a high only in the upper 80s with a nice increase in shower and thunderstorm activity thanks to a front approaching from the north, supported by an upper trough developing over the eastern U.S. I am not sure we will stay in the upper 80s, but no doubt the high Wednesday afternoon will be fairly close to 90, certainly more tolerable than what we are dealing with now.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: I think for now we will roll with the standard summer forecast on these four days… partly sunny, highs in the low 90s, a chance of scattered showers and storms each afternoon. Trying to define the “hot spots” for afternoon convection this far in advance is almost impossible to do since there really won’t be any synoptic scale features involved (our surface front will wash out over North Alabama on Thursday).

The GFS keeps the idea of a mean upper trough over the eastern U.S. early next week, with another surface front approaching, which could bring another increase in showers and storms in about 7 to 8 days from now.

TROPICS: Cristobal is moving northeast, parallel to the east coast of the U.S., and is packing sustained winds of 65 mph. The system will morph into a hybrid system tomorrow night and Wednesday as it moves into the North Atlantic.

Dolly is trying to get her act together over the warm water of the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. As Dolly moves away from the Yucatan, everything sure seems lined up for rapid intensification as it approaches the southern tip of Texas. Most of the models and the NHC track put Dolly into the region near the mouth of the Rio Grande Wednesday evening, and I think there is a real chance this thing could be a category two or three hurricane at the time of landfall. A hurricane warning is up for the Texas coast from Port O’Connor south.

And, we will watch the wave in the far eastern Atlantic; this one could become tropical storm Edouard in coming days.

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I had a great time today seeing the kids in the summer program at Cahaba Heights Elementary… be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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