One More Warm One

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Winter weather advisories are in effect for tonight and Monday morning for the far northwestern counties of Alabama as the sharp demarcation in temperature we saw yesterday drops a little further to the southeast bringing the risk of freezing rain. But for today clouds will be on the increase across Central Alabama as our afternoon highs climb into the 68 to 72 range making it feel a lot like Spring! Even further to our southwest across parts of East Texas and much of Louisiana, there is a threat of severe thunderstorms later today and this evening with some potential for isolated tornadoes.

If you are in any of the counties which are immediately adjacent to the current winter weather advisory, be cautious tonight and tomorrow morning because of the overall uncertainty that is associated with forecasting winter weather conditions in the Southeast US.

Aloft, the trough to our west today will zip through the flow tonight and Monday reaching the southern Appalachians by midday Monday. This will end the precipitation threat from the west during the morning and early afternoon. Monday is likely to be one of those raw days where our high for the day occurs in the early morning hours but temperatures throughout the day will remain nearly steady or actually fall some. Values Monday during the day are expected to be in the 40s with readings in the 50s southeast of the Birmingham area.

Another fast moving trough zips through the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday, but it appears moisture will somewhat limited so for the time being the forecast includes just some passing clouds. A few sprinkles are possible, so we may need to adjust the forecast slightly depending on how much moisture the system can bring with it.

But there is no rest in the weather office as yet another, strong short wave digs into Texas with a classic setup that often can bring an episode of winter weather to the Southeast US. Right now, much like the model runs yesterday, all indications are that the coldest air will remain north of the Tennessee River Valley. Model soundings for Central Alabama for Thursday continued to show a significant warm layer from the surface to nearly 700 millibars. But with the development of the digging short wave, the potential for it to close off, and the cold core character of it, we will need to closely monitor the overall evolution of this system to avoid any major surprises. Remember, our weather models generally do not handle shallow cold air situations well, so when you see the pattern developing the way this one seems to be, you’ve got to be alert to the potential for a round of winter weather. On the positive side, the really colder air does appear to stay well north across the Ohio Valley. But being cautious is never a bad thing!!

Friday looks like a good day as the upper trough and potentially closed low aloft along the Gulf Coast moves off the East Coast. The air mass should not be especially cold so Friday and Saturday we should see lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s.

Another front – possibly a dry one – enters the picture Saturday but it sure seems like moisture will be severely limited meaning some passing clouds and only a very small chance for some light rain.

Looking out into Week 2, the upper air pattern remains very progressive with a strong trough moving through the eastern US around the 13th and another one around the 15th. The one on the 15th comes in somewhat deeper so it could mean another round of cold weather for the eastern US and perhaps another snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic states. But this is out in voodoo country.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

I had a great time emceeing the 2nd Annual Helena Belles Ball last night. What a great organization and what a better cause than raising money for scholarships. Plans are already underway for the 3rd Annual Helena Belles Ball for 2015! James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video bright and early Monday morning. Don’t forget to mark you calendar for the Storm Alert Xtreme to be held Wednesday, March 5th, at 6:30 pm in the Pelham Civic Complex just off exit 246 on Interstate 65. Enjoy the springlike day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather