A Break From The Heat

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We will maintain a fairly good chance of showers and storms across Alabama today… I don’t expect the storms to be as strong as yesterday since the air was raked over the coals and won’t be as unstable, but SPC does have a good part of Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather today (see the Weather Xtreme video for all the graphics). If we can get some decent intervals of sunshine this morning, we could very well wind up with a few severe storms this afternoon. We are using 90 as our forecast high for today, but some spots could stay below 90 this afternoon north of Birmingham. Sure beats the heat we dealt with Monday.

THE DAYS AHEAD: Showers and storms should thin out tomorrow and Friday as drier air creeps into the northern half of Alabama. I won’t go with the NAM solution, which suggests no rain at all, but it does look like any showers and storms will be rather widely separated both days with highs in the low 90s.

For the weekend and the first part of next week, there isn’t much skill in determining the extent and placement of scattered showers and storms thanks to the tricky northwest flow aloft, and the fact that just about every model run looks different. The best thing to do for now is roll with the standard summer forecast (partly sunny with scattered afternoon storms), and we will fine tune the daily forecast as we get closer. Look like highs will be generally in the low 90s.

DOLLY HEADED FOR LAND: Hurricane Dolly will make landfall within the next two hours at Brownsville, Texas. Sustained winds are at 85 mph, and there is a real chance it could become a category two at the time of landfall. Rain amounts of 5 to 10 inches are likely along with the possibility of isolated tornadoes over the southern tip of Texas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, the wave west of the Cape Verde islands is fighting cool water, and most likely will recurve due to the higher latitude.

VOODOO LAND: The good news is that the GFS shows no sign of any serious, long lasting heat wave into mid-August. Quite a contrast to last year.

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I am headed to Rainbow City today to speak to the senior adults at White Springs Baptist Church… I will be back in the office by early afternoon and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!

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