Pattern Stuck in Summer Mode

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Looks like the weather pattern affecting Central Alabama is stuck in summer-like mode with a combination of a surface high pressure system and an upper level ridge. While the overall pattern adjusts somewhat, the overall pattern remains somewhat nondescript which will keep conditions warm along with small potential for isolated showers. Showers may become a little more problematic later in the week as the upper trough to our west gets closer but gradually washes out.

Central Alabama awoke to a little fog this morning with visibility not terribly restricted. Most places reported visibility for 4 to 6 miles with haze and fog while Tuscaloosa actually saw the visibility dip below 2 miles for a time. A small upper level disturbance was moving across the top of the ridge and was responsible for an area of showers in Central Tennessee that was moving eastward.

The main ridge axis stays put across the Southeast through Tuesday but as the upper trough to our west inches closer on Wednesday it will essentially wash out as the high recomposes itself along the eastern slope of the Rockies. This weakness in the upper air pattern should bring some slightly better chances for showers to the mid-week time frame as well as the latter half of the week. Moisture levels will be marginal with dew points in the lower and middle 60s, so isolated showers driven by the heat of the afternoon will be possible. The presence of the dying upper trough as the ridge repositions itself in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame should bring slightly better shower chances to the area for the latter half of the week.

But there is no sign of any real air mass change, so the forecast looks much like our typical summer forecast with some potential for showers each and every day. Because any showers should remain very isolated through Tuesday, most of us will remain dry. But even with the slightly better possibility of showers in the latter half of the week, most of us won’t see much rain.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Sunny days, fair nights through Memorial Day. Highs on the immediate coast in the lower to middle 80s but close to 90 degrees inland. Sea water temperatures are now in the 77-81 degree range along the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City.

EASTERN PACIFIC: The first tropical system of the season in the East Pacific, called Amanda, is now a Category 4 hurricane located well west of the Mexican coast. It is no threat to land as it churns in the Eastern Pacific. The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 while the East Pacific season started May 15. This is Hurricane Awareness Week in the US, so everyone is encouraged to become hurricane aware. While the hurricane season in the Atlantic basin is forecast to be less active than average, it only takes one to ruin the season if that one affects you.

Yesterday I noted that Week 2 was quite similar to Week 1 in the overall pattern, but the GFS has now adjusted the outlook with a substantial trough over the eastern US with the primary ridge along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. This would signal a change to slightly cooler and wetter conditions for the eastern US if this pattern verifies. But the patterns in voodoo country can flip faster than I can flip pancakes!

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James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video on Monday as we remain on a one-a-day schedule for the Memorial Day weekend. I’ll have the latest forecast update on ABC 3340 at 5 and 10 pm today. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather