Forecast Buster

The weather across Central Alabama is once again summer-like after that spectacularly cool day for July that we had yesterday. In fact, low clouds and a very moist layer immediately adjacent to the ground has helped to slow the ascent of the mercury, but with most of those clouds gone now, the temperature is skyrocketing into the 90s across much of the area.

And nearby, there is a real forecast buster going on. Take a look at a visible satellite image or a radar from Memphis, and you’ll find a huge cluster of storms or mesoscale convective complex occurring. These are the things that are really tough to forecast and can really mess up an otherwise good forecast.

Rainfall estimates suggest 3 to 5 inches of rain in south locations to the southwest of Memphis, and I really don’t doubt those values. I’d like to get one of those since it does not appear to be producing severe weather, just tremendous amounts of rain. I don’t want to sound ungrateful for the 31 hundredths of an inch of rain I got yesterday, but a good soaking like that cluster is doing would be welcome.

The cluster was moving southeastward. If it holds together, it could affect portions of West Central Alabama generally in the vicinity of Pickens and Sumter counties or perhaps a bit further south. Of course, outflows from that huge cluster could force additional development, so it will bear watching.

For the most part, much of Central Alabama will remain dry today due to a slightly drier layer of air between about 500 and 700 millibars.

-Brian-

Category: Uncategorized