Hurricane Awareness: Forecasting

This is hurricane awareness week across the US as the National Weather Service (NWS) focuses on educating people to the dangers and procedures to be safe during the upcoming hurricane season which begins June 1. Today’s focus is on the forecasting process for tropical systems.

-Brian-

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
529 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014

...THIS IS HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK...

TODAY'S TOPIC:  THE FORECAST PROCESS

THE GOAL OF HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK IS TO PROVIDE EDUCATION
ABOUT THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE, WHICH WILL PREPARE
YOU TO TAKE ACTION AS A HURRICANE APPROACHES. THIS INFORMATION MAY
SAVE YOUR LIFE, AT WORK, HOME, ON THE ROAD, OR ON THE WATER. EACH
DAY OF HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK FEATURES A UNIQUE TOPIC RELEVANT
TO EDUCATION AND AWARENESS. HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY RUNS FROM
JUNE 1ST UNTIL NOVEMBER 30TH FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN AND GULF
OF MEXICO.

TODAY WE WILL FOCUS ON THE FORECAST PROCESS. THE FIRST STEP IS TO
ACQUIRE QUALITY OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
(NWS) AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) HAVE MANY TOOLS TO
MONITOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS OVER THE OCEAN. SATELLITES, BUOYS, AND
SHIP REPORTS PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA. BUOYS ARE OBSERVATIONAL FLOATING
OCEAN PLATFORMS THAT MEASURE WAVE HEIGHT, WATER AND AIR
TEMPERATURES, AND WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION. AS THE STORMS MOVE
CLOSER TO LAND, OBSERVATIONS FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT,
DROP-WINDSONDES, DOPPLER RADAR, AND AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEMS (ASOS) POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST ARE ALSO USED.

ALL OF THE OBSERVATIONS ARE INGESTED INTO FAST SUPERCOMPUTERS THAT
WORK TO GENERATE PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANE MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY.
THE MODEL OUTPUT IS USED AS GUIDANCE DURING THE FORECAST
COORDINATION PROCESS. THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE (WFO) WILL
HAVE INTERNAL COORDINATION CALLS WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
(NHC). ONCE THE WFOS AND THE NHC AGREE ON A COURSE OF ACTION, THEN
THE NHC WILL ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE
AFFECTED AREAS.

WFO BIRMINGHAM WILL ISSUE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS (HLS) WHEN
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED 48 HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. TROPICAL
STORM/HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM/HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THIS STATEMENT IS DESIGNED TO INFORM
MEDIA, LOCAL DECISION MAKERS, AND THE PUBLIC OF THE STORM'S
ANTICIPATED EFFECTS ON THE LOCAL AREA...AS WELL AS THOSE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE.

STAY INFORMED BY MONITORING NOAA WEATHER RADIO, BROADCAST MEDIA, THE
INTERNET, AND SOCIAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST STORM INFORMATION.

HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH INFORMATION ON
DEVELOPING A FAMILY DISASTER PLAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION, YOU CAN VISIT THESE SITES
ON THE INTERNET:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, ALABAMA
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BMX

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV

HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK SITE
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/PREPARE/

FEMA
WWW.READY.GOV/HURRICANES

AMERICAN RED CROSS
WWW.REDCROSS.ORG/WHAT-WE-DO/DISASTER-RELIEF

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT EITHER JIM STEFKOVICH, THE
METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE, OR JOHN DEBLOCK, THE WARNING COORDINATION
METEOROLOGIST, AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM,
ALABAMA OFFICE AT 205-664-3010.

$$

Category: Alabama's Weather, Tropical