Wonderful Sunday Weather – Storms Up Next

The Sunday edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:

If you liked Saturday, I think you are going to love today. Our weather moderates some more resulting in fairly mild temperatures as afternoon highs are projected to reach the mid 50s. And with the abundant sunshine, it is going to feel very nice outside. I, for one, am going to try to get a good dose of sun by scheduling an afternoon walk around the neighborhood to enjoy today’s weather.

Clouds return Monday along with some changes as a low pressure center moves across the Red River Valley and heads toward Middle Tennessee. A strong short wave aloft will be moving out of the Southwest US. This will set the stage for the possibility of severe weather across a portion of the Southeast. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a sizeable area for Monday centered on Louisiana. That area is shifted eastward on Tuesday and encompasses the southern two-thirds of Alabama. Right now it would appear that the best chances for severe weather will remain closer to the Gulf Coast – say from about Prattville southward. The northward extent of severe weather will depend on how far inland the instability comes. So we’ll be watching for potential development.

It will be mild again Monday with the possibility of showers very late Monday but more likely early Tuesday. Rainfall will be heaviest north of Alabama across portions of Tennessee and Kentucky. Central Alabama should get a dousing, though, with around half an inch for most people and slightly higher amounts in any heavier thunderstorms.

The surface low that moves into Middle Tennessee will weaken Tuesday evening as it is replaced by a low that develops along the coast of the Carolinas. That surface low will scoot up the Atlantic Coast and bring stormy conditions to the Mid-Atlantic states. Back here the weather turns cold with the sharpening of the trough over the eastern US and good cold air advection for us. So be sure to enjoy the mild weather today and Monday because it goes away again by Wednesday.

This is where the GFS solution gets really interesting. I discounted the GFS a bit yesterday because the snow it was forecasting just seemed over done. Today’s solution looks a bit more realistic and could mean a snow event for North and Central Alabama Saturday night and Sunday. A fairly strong disturbance moves southeastward out of the Plains states with a weak surface low moving from Missouri on Friday into North Georgia on Saturday night. The GFS is forecasting this system to bring some moisture with it, so this is not likely to be a heavy snow producer – we need a low along the Gulf Coast for a heavy snow event. But this could be strong enough to bring an inch or two of snow to Central and North Alabama. A word of caution here – this is still a week away so we are on the edge of voodoo land and we’ve already seen the GFS solution change. This pattern is looking good so we’ll need to watch the evolution of this event as later model runs become available. And if you are inclined to do a snow dance, this might be a good time to break out the snow shoes!! Stay tuned.

One thing is pretty obvious from the GFS results and that is winter is not over. In the longer term, it appears our pattern will moderate a bit with a zonal flow pattern that should return Central Alabama to seasonal temperatures. But the 384-hour forecast shows the return of the long wave trough to the Eastern US. And this seems to be consistent with the NAO outlook which stays slightly negative.

Don’t forget the next Storm Alert stop is next Thursday in Jasper. Doors open at 5 pm and the program begins at 7 pm. I hope to see you there. It is another great program with lots of good information along with prizes. Tune in to ABC 3340 at 5 and 10 pm today for the latest news along with weather with Ashley Brand. Enjoy the day and God bless.

-Brian-

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