Summer-ish Week Ahead

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Happy Father’s Day for 2014! And it looks like we’re going to be feeling the grip of summer for the week ahead with a somewhat monotonous forecast as highs climb into the 90s with a daily risk for isolated to scattered showers.

The weather forecast comes about because of the building ridge over the eastern half of the country. The ridge is forecast to build in strong with a major ridge axis from about Lake Charles, LA, to Chicago, IL. The ridge builds for the first half of the week until Thursday and then begins to ebb somewhat under the onslaught of a strong trough/closed low coming across the northern Rockies. The ridge will dampen somewhat but maintains a sizable ridge from East Texas to the Great Lakes. So our atmosphere will see little in the way of change in conditions with enough moisture and good daytime heating to allow some showers to develop each day.

I think based on precipitable water forecasts that today will be essentially dry like we saw Saturday with only an isolated shower or two mainly over the southern half of Alabama. Without any strong changes in moisture fields, daytime heating will be the primary driving force in shower production. With the increase of temperatures we’ll need to keep an eye on summertime microburst potential each day.

At the Beach: Great looking weather if you are heading to the beach. There is roughly a fifteen degree diurnal temperature range each day with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the lower 70s. Rain chances remain rather low with only a few passing storms during the afternoon. There will certainly be more sun than clouds and the UV index is categorized as EXTREME, so make sure you wear sunscreen if taking to the beach. Water temperatures range from 78-81 from the west end of Dauphin Island to St. Andrew’s Bay in Panama City.

The tropical Atlantic Basin remains quiet while Tropical Storm Cristina in the Pacific continues to weaken toward depression status.

Looking further afield, the GFS is not so bullish on developing any significant tropical systems on the latest run, however, it still suggests the potential for a late June cold front for the Southeast US with the development of a trough over the eastern US.

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James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Enjoy your Sunday and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather