Shower Coverage Will Be Up

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A weakness in the upper air pattern will influence our weather today and Friday with a general increase in the number and coverage of showers and storms. The NAM and GFS MOS guidance values only show highs in the middle 80s today due to the presence of showers and clouds, relatively cool values for our highs considering that the 30-year average highs should be around 90. While there is not a threat of any organized severe weather, the weakness aloft and afternoon heating could combine to produce some isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind expected to be the greatest threat.

The weakness aloft migrates northeastward and becomes less of a factor in our weather, so it looks like a return to routine summer weather for the weekend with partly sunny days along with the risk of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon highs will be in the range of 87 to 91 – pretty typical for the end of June.

Models are showing a strengthening of the high pressure aloft across the Deep South, for next week and this should mean fewer showers and thunderstorms as well as hotter afternoons. Afternoon highs should rise into the low 90 and some spots could see highs in the mid 90s in a few spots. Any showers or thunderstorms that develop should be widely spaced due to the warm air aloft and the sinking motion associated with the ridge aloft.

ON THE GULF COAST WEATHER: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day from Panama City to Gulf Shores through the weekend with a passing storm from time to time. Highs along the immediate coast will remain in the upper 80s. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 84 degrees.

TROPICS: All remains quiet across the Atlantic basin and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend. Some tropical development possible in the eastern Pacific.

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James Spann will be on vacation until July 7th, so I plan to have a morning Weather Xtreme Video posted by 7:30 or 8 each day while he is away. Enjoy the day, stay dry, and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather