Becoming More Unsettled

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While the weather pattern has been somewhat nondescript for the last several days, that is changing as moisture values gradually increase and a weak frontal boundary approaches the Tennessee River Valley from the north. To add to the forecast challenge, a northwesterly flow pattern could produce thunderstorm clusters over the Central Plains with the potential for those clusters to invade the Southeast US. There is not a great deal of skill in timing these events, so we’ll have to maintain a close watch on radar and storm development and adjust our forecasts as needed.

For today, hot once again with the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms. With moisture creeping up, heat indices will likely reach the 100 to 105 range, so anyone with outdoor plans should be sure to stay hydrated and consider cutting back on the physical exertion.

While the Atlantic tropical basin is quiet again, the same can’t be said for the Pacific. Hawaii is under a hurricane warning with not just one storm to contend with. See the Xtreme for the detailed graphics.

Beach goers will enjoy a mostly sunny day on the Alabama and Northwest Florida beaches with highs in the upper 80s. Isolated showers possible today and the shower potential goes up for the weekend – but not expecting a complete washout. Sea water temperature running in the 82 to 84 range along the coast.

The upper air flow becomes increasingly northwesterly for the Southeast US with time, so our weather becomes more unsettled. I expect to see shower chances and coverage go up Friday and Saturday and perhaps stay up some into Sunday. Best chance for getting some rain appears to be Saturday. While I hate to see that for the weekend, we really could use some of Mother Nature’s rain to stem the dryness of the last week.

The northwesterly flow also opens us to the potential for mesoscale convective systems – MCSs – with weak disturbances that develop across the Central Plains and travel long distances. Timing these events is difficult, so recognizing the pattern and maintaining a watchful eye for this development will be necessary.

The overall upper air pattern does not see much change as we head into a good portion of next week. This is good news for us since it should keep any extreme heat away with highs mainly in the lower 90s with a chance of daily showers driven primarily by afternoon heating.

Looking at voodoo country, and we see clearly why James has given it that nickname! The pattern flipped yesterday and it has flipped again today back to what we’ve been seeing with a fairly strong trough positioned over the eastern US. As I mentioned yesterday, confidence was higher with consistency in the longer range models, but confidence has fallen off a good deal with these large differences from run to run.

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The next Weather Xtreme Video should be posted first thing on Friday morning. Enjoy your day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather