Winter Starts; Storms Tuesday

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There is a lot happening in the weather for Central Alabama on top of the major holiday and all of the preparations for it. Clouds held in much longer than expected yesterday and overnight resulting in a tremendous temperature gradient across Central Alabama. In the northwest counties where the sky cleared late yesterday and last night, the mercury dropped into the upper 20s, but further southeast in the Montgomery area where the clouds held tough, readings were around 50 degrees at sunrise. This gradient is the result of the variation in clouds and there isn’t even a front involved. This is a bigger gradient than we get with some fronts. The cloud cover forecast remains tough today as many spots will remain cloudy while the area northwest of Birmingham will see some sun.

On top of that, we have a weak wedge or cold air damming situation developing which could spell some light rain for the eastern sections of Alabama tonight and early Monday from about Birmingham eastward.

And on top of that, we have a major upper level storm system carving out a very cold trough over the lower Mississippi River Valley which may produce severe weather for Alabama on Tuesday, possibly lingering into the early hours of Wednesday. The models are a tad slower with everything, so it appears the best threat for severe storms will come Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning. CAPE values have come up on the latest model run, and there is sufficient shear to support a tornado threat along with damaging straight line wind. But, and there is always a but, there is still some question as to the amount of instability that will occur. Simulated radar forecasts suggest a large area of storms developing along the coastal areas, and those storms could potentially limit the amount of destabilization to our atmosphere. MOS guidance numbers bring 60 degree dew points as far north as Birmingham, but if those numbers are off by just a few degrees, we might not get enough destabilization for severe storms. So the situation remains somewhat fluid at this time, and we’ll need to be watchful of future model runs to see what does develop.

The surface low and front go by us early Wednesday morning, so I expect Wednesday, Christmas Eve, to be one of those days where the temperatures do not behave in their typical diurnal fashion. Out highest temperature for the day is likely to occur shortly after midnight with the temperature falling for much of the day including the daylight hours. So I’m forecasting temperatures falling through the 50s during the day.

Christmas Day should see a return to some sun with lows in the 30s and highs in the lower 50s. Friday, the day to return or exchange those gifts that didn’t quite hit the mark, should be dry and a bit warmer with highs climbing into the lower 60s. But the next system is taking shape to bring a chance for rain to Central Alabama on Saturday, though moisture availability is questionable. And we cool down once again.

And the screaming message from the maps in voodoo country is that we are going to stay busy with a steady stream of weather systems and a chilly look to the pattern with the long wave trough anchored over the eastern half of the country.

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James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video by 7 am Monday. I hope you have a great day. And in the spirit of this holiday season, be sure to perform at least one act of shameless kindness with the hope that it will spread. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather