Cloudy-Wet Period Ahead

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Looks like today will not be quite as gorgeous as yesterday was as a large cluster of thunderstorms was poised just to our west and northwest centered primarily on Arkansas. Clouds from that cluster have already invaded Alabama helping to keep our cool morning a tad warmer than yesterday. As a matter of fact, I think the forecast for Central Alabama for the next couple of days will be interesting and somewhat challenging.

The main challenge will be to forecast the action of a number of short waves traveling through the northwesterly flow. Combine that challenge with the additional challenge of forecasting the mesoscale events that will occur as a result of that mesoscale convective complex (MCC) over Arkansas today, and you have quite a task ahead of you.

Clouds will help keep temperatures down for the next couple of days with highs likely to stay below the normal 90 or 91. The big question is if it will rain and when. The models are in fairly solid agreement, but we all know the smaller scale features are sometimes not forecast well. We will continue to deal with clusters of storms primarily to our west but additional showers and storms should develop in the relatively moist air mass around them. I think we’ll stay mostly dry with a some showers scattered about today across the western sections with better chances on Monday and even better chances on Tuesday.

Depending on the exact placement and development of additional MCCs, I think Tuesday could be a rather wet and stormy day.

By Wednesday the upper trough broadens out and pushes into the area a bit stronger suppressing the main area of showers a bit further south. However, with everything so close the forecast will have to reflect a chance of showers for much of the latter part of the upcoming week.

And then on next weekend, the GFS promises a new, strong short wave to be edging ever closer on Saturday and Sunday. Based on the current model projections and its timing, it would seem that next Sunday could also be a fairly wet day.

And through all of this coming week temperatures will probably be below normal for this time of year by a few degrees. Hey, who wouldn’t want to see a cooler than normal August in Central Alabama?

Tropics are beginning to heat up, too, as we head into the most active portion of hurricane season running from early August through about the first of October. Two areas of concern in the southern portion of the Central Atlantic. Neither area looking like something will form right away, but both areas appear headed into conditions where the potential exists for further development. Both are relatively low latitude systems, so we’ll be keeping a watchful eye on them.

Bill Murray noted yesterday that the GFS brought one of them, probably the first system, across Florida and into the Gulf. The 06Z GFS model run today shifts the system more northward and brings something into the Carolina coast in about 10 days. I would expect to see more shifts as we watch the longer range guidance over the next week or so.

Speaking of longer range guidance, it sure looks like we’ll stay away from the heat, but much will depend on the future course of an tropical systems that form.

I’m a little late with the posting this morning. No, I won’t make excuses. I just plain stayed in the bed longer this morning. The weather has been so nice up here at Cheaha State Park, that I’ve been doing some good walking. Nice to have some friends drop by yesterday to chat and have lunch. Sorry they missed the deer by about 30 minutes. James Spann should have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted before 7 am tomorrow morning. And he’s much more punctual than I am. Have a great day and God bless.

-Brian-

PS Time for my mid-morning nap!!

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