Fay Targets Alabama

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Looks more and more like Fay will be a major rain producer for much of Alabama late this weekend and early next week. Just how much rain, and the exact timing remain questionable. But, this has great potential to be a drought buster.

SHORT TERM: The GFS, and our old friend the NGM are becoming more bullish on scattered showers and storms across Alabama tomorrow and Friday thanks to the upper low to the west. The NWS in Jackson has issued a flash flood watch for much of Mississippi, and I get the idea we need to hit the shower possibilities a little harder for the next two days. We should be close to 90 tomorrow, with mid to upper 80s on Friday.

WEEKEND AND BEYOND: It all is up to our friend Fay. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics associated with this discussion… sure looks like a big, tropical rain event for Alabama Sunday night into Monday.

The GFS takes Fay pretty much along the Gulf Coast, from Cedar Key to Mobile Bay (interaction with land will probably keep it from becoming a hurricane if this is correct), with a north turn into West Alabama Monday.

The ECMWF is the most aggressive with the offshore idea, ramping the system into a hurricane over the extreme northern Gulf with a landfall on the Alabama coast late Sunday night.

Other models keep Fay inland, and the official NHC track keeps the system inland as well.

The best model blend turns Fay northward up U.S. 43 through West Alabama Monday, which would bring a big wet-down to the entire state. The greatest threat would some from flash flooding, unless this thing can get down in the Gulf for a day or two, it won’t be anything like Ivan in 2004, when there was widespread tree and power line damage statewide.

The ECMWF keeps the system trapped around here on Tuesday, while the GFS kicks it out to the northeast.

BOTTOM LINE: We will headline Sunday night and Monday as the best chance of widespread, heavy rain in Alabama from Fay. Flash flooding will be the primary threat.

Of course, you know the usual disclaimer, all of this is subject to change, but confidence is increasing in this solution.

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I had a great time today at the Hoover Rotary Club; I was the speaker along with ABC 33/40 General Manager Mike Murphy. I especially enjoyed the “standing umbrella” ovation! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow; J.B. and the gang will keep the blog updated with fresh information until then. Stay tuned!

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