Hello, Danny ! !

It has taken a number of days, but Danny has finally made an appearance on the tropical stage! The National Hurricane Center (NHC) named the storm this afternoon. Danny has continued to improve in overall look and strength since the last advisory including the development of interlocking curved convective bands and the formation of an upper level anticyclonic outflow pattern. Here’s a look at Danny from the GOES East satellite.

The European satellite actually has a slightly better look at Danny, so here is that view.

Danny was about 1,450 miles east of the Leeward Islands moving westward or 280 degrees at 12 mph with maximum sustained wind estimated to be near 40 mph. Danny should continue of a heading just slightly north of west for the next couple of days before turning slight more westerly. Here is the track forecast graphic from NHC.

Danny is forecast to continue to strengthen and should become a hurricane in about two days, roughly around noon on August 20th. Using the historical hurricane data from NOAA, I noted that nine (9) storms have gone within 10 miles of the present location of Danny. One (1) struck Mexico, one (1) made landfall on the South Carolina coast just north of Savannah, and the other seven (7) all recurved out to sea and remained in the Atlantic.

Historical data doesn’t tell us where THIS storm is going, but at least it gives us some ideas on what past weather patterns have done. The historical data goes all the way back to 1892.

By the way, the center of Danny was located about 3065 miles southeast of Birmingham. Using the present speed, it will take Danny over 256 hours (over 10 days) to get here if it moved on a steady track northwest and didn’t make any pit stops!

-Brian-

Category: Tropical