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Dry Through Tomorrow; Hot Afternoons

| 6:54 am May 30, 2016

HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY: Memorial Day is meant to be about honoring our hero warriors who gave their lives protecting the freedoms we hold so dear. Let’s take time to remember that today and the families left behind.

The weather looks great for anything you want to do outdoors today. Ample sunshine with a high close to 90 degrees this afternoon. The chance of an afternoon shower is so small we won’t mention it in the forecast.

Pretty much the same story tomorrow and Wednesday… partly to mostly sunny days, fair nights, and afternoon highs between 89 and 92 degrees. Little if any risk of rain.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A weak surface front will approach from the north, and become stationary over Tennessee. This should bring the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms back to the northern half of Alabama on these two days. This won’t be a major, widespread rain event, but hopefully some communities will get a decent shower or two.

Since May 15, Birmingham has received only 0.15″ of rain, and soil moisture continues to lessen with these dry days.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Not much change; a moist airmass will remain in place, we will maintain the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. For those planning outdoor events, the showers will be random and scattered, and there is no way to resolve start/stop times or specific locations of the showers. Just be ready for a passing shower or storm from time to time with a mix of sun and clouds both days. Highs will drop down into the mid 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Global models suggest a rather deep upper trough will form over the eastern third of the nation, suggesting that drier, continental air will invade Alabama for the first half of the week. This would mean sunny days, cooler nights, and lower humidity levels. Some spots could see a low in the 50s by Tuesday morning. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: Weak, disorganized Tropical Storm Bonnie is near Charleston, South Carolina, and will move northeast along the coast of the Carolinas in coming days with breezy, showery conditions continuing.


The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach through Friday; a few widely scattered showers or storms will be possible over the weekend, but you will see see a good supply of sunshine both days. Highs in the low to mid 80s on the immediate coast, and closer to 90 inland.

This is the sunset last night at Mexico Beach, Florida… photo from Brittany Vines


See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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We are on a holiday schedule, so just one Weather Xtreme video today… but we will post new forecast notes later this afternoon. Enjoy the day!


A Noonday Look at Alabama’s Weather

| 12:34 pm May 29, 2016


A healthy field of cumulus is developing over Alabama on this late May Sunday.

Some drier air is working in aloft over the northwestern part of the state, thanks to the circulation around Tropical Depression Bonnie, which moved inland this morning east of Charleston SC as a weak tropical storm.

It will turn north and northeast over the next couple of days, remaining over South Carolina through tomorrow, then traversing the coastal sections of North Carolina through Wednesday.

There has been some heavy rain this morning over South Carolina. 7 inches fell over Jasper County, forcing I-95 to be shut down near Ridgeland. One fatality has been reported due to rip currents.

A coupe of isolated storms could form southeast of I-59 this afternoon, but don’t expect much today or tomorrow in the way of cooling showers, so your barbecues and lake trips should be fine.

Highs will be near 90F both days.


Summer-like Weather in the Week Ahead

| 7:17 am May 29, 2016

Looks like Central Alabama will be in a summer-like weather pattern for the week ahead as we remain between active weather east and west of us.

Tropical Storm Bonnie was located right on the South Carolina coast this morning bringing heavy rain to parts of South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and North Carolina. Bonnie was still classified as a tropical storm, however, with about half of the circulation over land, it should continue to weaken and become a depression on Memorial Day as it drifts northeastward along the coast. To our west, active weather continued to plague West Texas with an upper trough over the Southwest US.


Here in Central Alabama, we remained under a weakened upper ridge, but an upper ridge nevertheless. That along with the relatively high humidity will keep us in a summer-ish pattern where we’ll have to mention the possibility of isolated thunderstorms just about each day through the end of the week when our chances are likely to get boosted a bit with the approach of a weak frontal boundary. Radar was clear this morning, and the infrared satellite image indicated a few clouds passing across the Alabama sky. With less clouds today, we should see the highs rebound back into the upper 80s with some spots possibly pushing the 90-degree mark. Great weather for the SEC Championship game today at the Hoover Met where the Florida Gators will take on the Texas A & M Aggies. You can get your tickets here.

Great weather continues for the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida through the rest of the holiday weekend and for much of the week ahead. Expect mostly sunny days and fair nights. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the lower to mid 80s with upper 80s and lower 90s just inland. Rip currents are in the moderate range for most locations, so pay attention to the flags at the beaches. The water temperature at Perdido Pass at Orange Beach was 82 degrees. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here.

Weak ridging remains the primary pattern for us through much of the week ahead. This means morning lows in the upper 60s and afternoon highs in the 88 to 92 range. That pattern begins to change Wednesday and into the latter part of the week as a strong trough comes across the North Central US and finally breaks down the ridge pattern that has been with us for so many days. That trough will come across the Great Lakes on Thursday and Friday dragging the trough across the Mississippi River and bringing a surface frontal boundary into the Southeast US. The GFS is holding back a piece of that trough over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico, so rain chances should drop off Saturday but may not drop completely to zero as the front washes out south of Central Alabama. More clouds along with more numerous showers should see our highs drop back into the 80s.

The seven day periods ends next Sunday with a trough position over the eastern third of the US. The GFS keeps that pattern in place through June 8th and then gradually moves the upper ridge back into the eastern US while the traveling weather systems stay well north of Alabama along the US-Canadian border.

It is a holiday weekend, so while James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video, he will probably produce only one video on Memorial Day. You can always check back for notes on what we expect the Alabama weather to do. Enjoy the day and take a moment to remember all of those people in the armed services that have sacrificed to keep our country strong and free. Godspeed.


Note: While I was preparing the video, NHC downgraded Bonnie to a tropical depression.



TD 2 Becomes Bonnie

| 3:45 pm May 28, 2016

The National Hurricane Center has issued an advisory to upgrade Tropical Depression 2 to Tropical Storm Bonnie.

The center of Bonnie was located about 120 miles southeast of Beaufort, SC, with maximum sustained wind of 40 mph. Heavy rain from Bonnie was spreading across the coastal sections of South Carolina. The image below is from the radar at Charleston, SC.


A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the area from Savannah River to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located by satellite and NOAA Doppler radars near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 79.4 West. Bonnie was moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed, is expected through this evening and on Sunday as the system nears the coast within the warning area.

Tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, mainly to the northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure was 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later tonight or early Sunday.

Bonnie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with maximum totals of 5 inches from eastern
South Carolina through southeastern North Carolina.

Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is possible within the tropical storm warning area during the
next high tide on Sunday morning.

Bonnie is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United
States coast through the weekend.

An isolated tornado or two will be possible late tonight and early Sunday over the immediate coastal region from central
South Carolina through southern North Carolina.




Sun, Clouds, and A Few Showers

| 1:38 pm May 28, 2016

5-28-2016 1-31-47 PM

We are seeing a few more clouds today and with those clouds, a few light showers are ongoing. These are mainly along or just east of the Interstate 65 corridor, but for the most part are very light.

5-28-2016 1-33-47 PM

The clouds and rain are holding temperatures down a bit, with upper 70s, but outside these areas, where there is more sun, temperatures are in the 80s this afternoon.

5-28-2016 1-35-28 PM

Tomorrow, we are not expecting as many clouds or showers, so temperatures will likely once again approach the 90s for Central Alabama. Rain chances are very low, but not zero, so don’t be surprised to see a few isolated showers across the Alabama landscape.

WAITING ON BONNIE: Still a tropical depression as of the 1100 AM EDT update. The center of Tropical Depression Two was estimated by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft to be near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 78.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph. This general motion, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed, is expected later today and on Sunday as the system nears the coast. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.


Recent data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical cyclone remains just below tropical storm strength. However, the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). No impact for Alabama, but weather along the Georgia and Carolina Coast is only going to deteriorate the next 24 hours as the system approaches the coast.

5-28-2016 1-28-40 PM

MEMORIAL DAY: Not much change in the overall weather pattern. Monday, there could still be a few isolated showers possible, but many communities will remain dry with a partly sunny day. The high will be close to 90F Monday.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: The final two days of the tournament continue at the Hoover Met. Today a few more clouds with temps a little lower, tomorrow for the championship game, more sun is expected with warmer temps. We will continue to mention a small risk of an afternoon shower or storm today and tomorrow, but rain should pose no big issues. Click Here For Event and Ticket information. .


AM Sprinkles along with Clouds

| 7:23 am May 28, 2016

Sometimes weather patterns get stuck and seem to remain in one pattern for a number of consecutive days. Chock our late May weather up to just that. But even though the overall pattern is not changing and hasn’t changed much this week, Alabama is waking up to cloudy skies along with some light echoes on radar. So look for clouds together with a few sprinkles this morning. Enough rain that you’ll probably need your windshield wipers a little, but rainfall amounts will be very light with rain gauges posting amounts less than a tenth of an inch only in scattered spots.

Clouds are likely to remain with us this afternoon, but because of the clouds, it looks likely that the afternoon high will be held down a good deal with highs mainly in the lower 80s. While I expect nearly all of us to stay dry, there is still the outside chance of an isolated shower this afternoon. If you find yourself headed to the Hoover Met for the SEC Baseball Tournament, be sure to take your sunscreen. Even though we’ll have cloudy skies, the ultraviolet radiation can still create a nasty sunburn. You can get your tickets by clicking right here.

Heading to the beach, the weather is going to be great. Expect mostly sunny days, fair nights through Memorial Day from Dauphin Island across Gulf Shores and east to Panama City Beach. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the lower 80s while inland locations will see upper 80s. Sea water temperature at Perdido Pass in Orange Beach was 80 degrees. Get your detailed beach forecast here.

While the weather pattern for Alabama is not showing much change, that is not the case for the Southwest Atlantic. Tropical depression Two formed late yesterday afternoon and is likely to cause some soaking rain along with strong breezes along the Southeast US coast especially for the Carolinas. There is a possibility that this depression will gain enough strength to be named. If it does, it will be Bonnie, the second named storm for the 2016 season which does not officially begin until June 1st!


Depression or tropical storm, it is not likely to have much effect on Alabama weather as we stay on the dry side of the system.

Looking at the model projections for Central Alabama, there is not much change all week for us until late in the week. It will continue to be warm with an upper ridge that weakens but stays in place keeping the main traveling weather systems well to our northwest. This means we should see highs in the lower 90s for much of the week ahead. The heat and moisture combination make it imperative that we mention the potential for isolated thunderstorms each day. But the chances remain low and most of us will remain dry.

But that pattern is expected to undergo a change late next week and into the weekend. By Thursday and Friday, a strong upper low will move across the western Great Lakes dragging an upper trough across the Southeast US as the upper ridge is pushed well out into the Atlantic. This pattern change will do two things for us. First, the chances for showers and thunderstorms should go up a good deal for Friday and Saturday. Second, the upper pattern shifts to a northwesterly flow as the trough moves by, so we should see a significant drop in our temperatures with the afternoon highs around 80 on Friday and Saturday.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS keeps the trough over the eastern US through Monday, June 6th, and then begins a gradual shift to an upper ridge by Thursday, June 9th. This means that we should see our highs return to the lower 90s with only limited chances for showers mainly during the heat of the afternoon. But the GFS suggests that by June 12th we may see another strong trough coming across the Central Plains that will bring us another break in the heat.

Thanks so much for remaining a blog viewer. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here by 8 am or so on Sunday. Enjoy the day whatever you plan to do. I’m hoping to see a little of the action at the SEC Baseball Tournament this afternoon. Godspeed.




Tropical Depression Number Two Forms

| 5:13 pm May 27, 2016

td two vis-animated 01

Invest 91L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Two this afternoon based on Air Force Reconnaissance which found a closed circulation in the weather system off the Southeast Coast of the United States.

It has top winds of 35 mph. It should become Tropical Storm Bonnie overnight tonight. It should reach the South Carolina coast near or just west of Charleston early Sunday morning.

The official forecast meanders it along the South Carolina coast through Tuesday, slowly moving offshore and tracking just off the North Carolina coast through Wednesday.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the South Carolina coast from the Savannah River to Little River Inlet.

Upper level conditions are not especially favorable for intensification, and the system is not forecast to increase beyond a 45 mph tropical storm, but it will be moving over some really warm Gulfstream water, so I think we will have to watch carefully in case it strengthens a little more than anticipated.

In addition to windy conditions, very heavy rain will impact the coast of South Carolina, with at least 2-3 inches of rain expected. I think that forecast from the WPC may be low, especially given the slow movement. There will be rough surf and rip currents as well.

TD Two/Bonnie will have no direct impact on the weather for Alabama of the beautiful beaches of Northwest Florida and Alabama.

You may ask what happened to TD Number One? Hurricane Alex formed in January, the first to form in January since 1938. It formed north of Bermuda and moved toward the Azores, weakening to a tropical storm before reaching the islands.


Hot Afternoons; Only Isolated Showers

| 3:15 pm May 27, 2016

RADAR CHECK: A glance of the radar at 3:00 this afternoon showers only one shower in the entire state, near Cullman. Otherwise, we have a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures mostly in the upper 80s. A isolated showers will remain possible through the evening hours.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Not much change. While a few isolated showers are possible, many communities will remain dry through Monday with partly sunny days and fair nights. The high tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 80s, and very close to 90 Sunday and Monday.

NEXT WEEK: Guidance is trending hotter for Tuesday and Wednesday, with low 90s likely thanks to the upper ridge. But, the chance of rain should increase toward the end of the week and the following weekend (June 4-5) as a fairly deep upper trough forms west of the state. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICAL UPDATE: The disturbance northeast of the Bahamas is now Tropical Depression Two… it will bring showery and breezy weather to the Carolinas this weekend along with rip tides. This system will have no impact on Alabama or the Gulf Coast. If it gets a name, it will be “Bonnie”.


AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through early next week with only very isolated showers. Highs in the low 80s on the immediate coast, with upper 80s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: Most of the weekend will be dry; just a chance of isolated showers in Hoover. Partly sunny days, fair nights, highs 87-90 degrees. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Google Plus

Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the long weekend!


From SEC Baseball to Balloon Festivals, Alabama NewsCenter Captures Alabama’s Best!

| 11:56 am May 27, 2016

From Cane Creek Canyon to Cahaba lilies and from crab cakes to red snapper there are many things that make Alabama beautiful and tasty. Alabama NewsCenter captures what’s best about our state. Here were some of those things from this past week.

Alabama’s First Class Pre-K program wins national attention, but families get real rewards


SEC Baseball Tournament fits Hoover Met like a well-worn glove


Football, baseball greats among 2016 inductees into Alabama Sports Hall of Fame


Ready for red snapper? Alabama looks to bigger catch from longer season, expanded waters


Alabama Power ready for 2016 hurricane season; urges others to prepare


A.G. Gaston Club’s ‘Home is where the start is’ celebrates leaders and inspires youths at annual program


The story of how one Alabama sailor rescued USS Indianapolis survivors


Alabama Power lineman Doug Buford brings ‘family’ to Mulherin Home in Mobile


Freedom Rider recalls firebombed bus that nearly took his life in Alabama


Italian manufacturer plans new Bay Minette facility, creating 70 jobs


Alabama Maker Great Bear Wax Co. is shining a natural light


Appetite for growth: Alabama food companies expanding operations


Alabama retailers Bromberg and Shea to be feted by National Retail Federation


Balloons, bikes, dinos and lots of music: Memorial Day weekend in Can’t Miss Alabama


Flying legends of World War II grace Birmingham


Cahaba Lily Festival in West Blocton celebrates featured flower


Cane Creek Canyon Nature Preserve a hidden gem in northwest Alabama


Birmingham Comedy Festival spreads hilarity throughout Magic City


Funk Fest found success in Birmingham


Crab cakes at Our Place Cafe among 100 Dishes to Eat in Alabama Before You Die


EPA lauds Montgomery for new environmentally friendly park


Alabama insurance agency, FHLBank Atlanta team to aid Gulf Coast homeowners


Dothan April home sales climb 12 percent over same period last year


Shoals area March home sales up 40 percent from February




Friday Midday Nowcast for Central Alabama

| 11:42 am May 27, 2016


The latest visible satellite image for the state shows that most of the eastern half of the state is mostly sunny, with the western part of the state with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Currently there are no showers showing up on radar for any part of the state, and for most of us, it should remain that way throughout the rest of the day.

Once again, the active weather in the United States is located back over from Eastern Texas through Eastern Arkansas and Louisiana, and up in the central and northern plains states, up through Eastern Minnesota, Eastern Wisconsin, and some activity in Southern Illinois. As of right now, there are no severe weather watches or warnings in effect for the Contiguous U.S. We do note that the SPC has much of central Kansas and Oklahoma outlined in the standard “Slight Risk” for severe storms, with the main risks being from sporadic large hail and damaging wind gusts. Good news is that it appears to be a day where the risk for tornadoes will be lower than the previous.

QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES: Temperatures at this time are already up in the 80s. The warm spot in the state is Montgomery at 86. Here is a list of temperature readings from across the state at this time:

Birmingham 85
Tuscaloosa 82
Muscle Shoals 82
Huntsville 85
Anniston 83
Alexander City 80
Montgomery 86
Dothan 82
Mobile 82

HRRR Simulated Radar valid through midnight tonight.

HRRR Simulated Radar valid through midnight tonight.

REST OF TODAY: A mix of sun and clouds throughout the remainder the day with just a very small risk of an isolated afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm. The odds for any one place receiving any rainfall is small, and most places will remain dry. Afternoon highs for the Central Alabama area will be in the 87-92 range, and with the dewpoints around 60 today, it will feel a little less comfortable.

AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR BIRMINGHAM AREA: Today’s Air Quality Index will be in the CODE YELLOW (moderate) for ozone and particulate matter. Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high temperature for May 27th in Birmingham is 84, while the normal low is 61. The record high of 98 was reached in 1962. The record low of 42 was set back in 1961.

THE WEEKEND: A hot and humid weekend in store for Central Alabama, with partly to mostly sunny skies during the day, and fair nights. Only a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the weekend, with the highest risk being tomorrow. Afternoon highs will be in the 87-92 degree range.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through early next week; showers will be very hard, if not impossible to find. Highs will be in the low 80s on the immediate coast, with upper 80s to near 90 degrees inland. See a very detailed beach forecast here.


THE TROPICS: A sub-tropical storm is expected to form off the South Atlantic coast of the U.S. today or tomorrow; it will head for the coast of the Carolinas where breezy and wet weather is likely. No direct impact one way or another on Alabama or the Gulf Coast.

SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT: Afternoon highs will remain in the 87-90 degree range in Hoover through Sunday… only a few isolated afternoon showers around. Otherwise, mostly sunny days and fair nights… a great weekend for baseball at the Hoover Met. Get information about the big event here.

WEATHERBRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can find it here.