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Hot Weekend; Cooler Next Week

| September 24, 2016 @ 7:23 am

Let’s start with a quick recap of some new records yesterday established for Anniston, Tuscaloosa, Montgomery, Muscle Shoals, and Pensacola. At Anniston, the old record of 96 set in 1980 was broken with a high of 97. At Tuscaloosa, the old record of 97 set in 1980 was broken with a high of 98. Montgomery did nearly the same breaking the old record of 97 set in 1931 with a high of 98. And it was 94 in Pensacola tying the record high for yesterday set in 1998. The bad news is that there is little reason to expect our high temperatures today to be much different from yesterday. Record highs for today include Birmingham at 99 set in 1931, Tuscaloosa at 97 set in 1961, Anniston at 96 set in 1931, and Montgomery at 98 set in 1931, so we could see a couple of these records tumble today.

You know the pattern. We have a surface high along with an upper ridge in place across the Southeast US. The upper ridge bulges northward all the way to the Great Lakes area. But we are also eyeing a rather deep closed low and trough over the northern and central Rockies that will be making its way slowly eastward making an impact on our weather in the Monday-Tuesday time frame. For now satellite images shows clear skies across the state of Alabama with a few patches of clouds present over South Alabama. Look for highs today to once again reach the middle and upper 90s in the range of 94 to 98.

Football weather looks good albeit warm! Alabama hosts Kent State at Bryant-Denny Stadium with an 11:00 am CDT kickoff. The sky will be mostly sunny with temperatures rising from near 88 at kickoff to 95 degrees by the final whistle. It will be very, very hot in the east stands with direct sun while the west side will be more shaded. Sun screen a must for the game!

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Auburn will host LSU at Jordan-Hare Stadium with a 5:00 pm CDT kickoff. The sky should be mostly clear with temperatures falling through the 80s.

Headed to the beach? About 8 to 10 hours of sunshine is expected daily on the coast from Dauphin Island to Panama City Beach through the weekend with only widely scattered storms expected through the middle of the upcoming week. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast with lower 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

Little in the way of severe storms forecast by SPC with only a marginal risk in a narrow strip arcing from West Texas northward across western Iowa into the western Dakotas. The marginal risk area slides to Chicago and southern Lake Michigan for Day 2. Day 3 has no risk areas.

And the tropics remain active as they have been since about the 10th of September. Karl and Lisa are still plodding away. Karl is very close to Bermuda this morning but will be moving rapidly into the North Atlantic. Lisa remained a depression this morning and is expected to fizzle by Sunday. An area of disturbed weather with a broad low pressure field was south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This area is expected to move steadily at 20 to 25 mph across the South Atlantic. By about Wednesday or so, the area will be approaching the Leeward Islands where environmental conditions are expected to become favorable for intensification. Should this area become better organized then it would be named Matthew.

Following the GFS 06Z model run, the strong trough over the northern Rockies this morning will push eastward through Tuesday when it is expected to reach the eastern Great Lakes area. A surface low associated with this upper trough over the Dakotas this morning will move eastward reaching Southeast Canada by Tuesday. This will bring a cold front down into the Southeast US during the day on Monday. This will bring our best chances for rain over the next week or so, but it’s looking more and more likely that the showers or thunderstorms that do occur will be scattered, so not everyone will see rain. Moisture values ahead of the front are limited with precipitable water values around 1.5 to 1.7 inches.

Before all of that comes about, it is worth mentioning that there is a weak area of low pressure in the upper air flow over the Gulf Coast area of the florida Panhandle. This weakness is moving westward and is not expected to have much impact other than the potential for isolated showers along the Gulf Coast and into southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

The front pushes further south into the Gulf on Tuesday bringing us under high pressure from over Texas. The upper flow goes northwesterly behind the upper trough, so we should be able to say goodbye to highs in the 90s with our highs finally dipping back into the 80s, much closer to our seasonal averages for late September and early October.

The upper ridge to our west on Wednesday will slowly slide east through the end of the week and into the weekend keeping us dry. Highs can be expected to stay in the lower and middle 80s – a nice change – and with lower humidity as dew points fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Wednesday appears likely to be our coolest morning with lows in the lower 50s, but those typically cooler locations could see morning lows reach the upper 40s. Won’t that feel nice?

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Looking out into voodoo country, another strong trough moves into the western Great Lakes around October 4th followed by another, much deep trough around October 6th. And when you look at the maps, you cannot ignore the GFS projections of a strong tropical system coming into the Gulf of Mexico. Following the maps, this tracks back to that broad area of low pressure that is currently south of Cabo Verde Islands. That deep approaching trough on the 6th seems likely to force the tropical system in the Gulf to recurve into the Northeast Gulf Coast. Remember, we’re dealing with voodoo country here. But it is worth noting that the scenario the GFS is currently painting has some validity. We’ve seen numerous systems come across the South Atlantic this season without any development just as the GFS is suggesting with this system. Conditions in the Caribbean and Gulf as well as the immediate East Coast of the US is where we’ve seen development as we saw with Hermine and even with Julia. I’m certainly not waving hurricane flags just yet, but I think we’ll need to keep a close eye on future runs of the GFS to see what we might expect.

Thanks for tuning into the blog. I expect to post the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video here by 7:30 am or so on Sunday morning. Wishing all the teams success in their games today, and certainly hoping the Florida State Seminoles can bounce back from the devastating loss last week. Stay cool and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Hot Weekend; Much Cooler Next Week

| September 23, 2016 @ 3:25 pm

ONE LAST HOT WEEKEND: Summer fans will get one bonus weekend as this pattern won’t be changing. An upper ridge holds, meaning mostly sunny, hot days and fair nights through Sunday. Highs will remain generally in the 92-95 degree range, ten degrees above average for late September. Any afternoon showers will be very hard to find.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tonight, the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 80s.

Alabama hosts Kent State at Bryant-Denny Stadium tomorrow morning (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures rising from near 88 at kickoff, to 94 degrees by the final whistle. It will be very, very hot in the east stands where the sun will be out in full force (the west side will be more shaded).

Auburn will host LSU at Jordan-Hare Stadium tomorrow evening (5:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly clear with temperatures falling through the 80s.

NEXT WEEK: The big upper trough over the western states will beat the ridge down, and push a cold front in our direction. We will bring in the chance of showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning; unfortunately I don’t think this will be a widespread, or especially beneficial rain event as amounts should be under 1/4″ for many places. Monday’s high will drop into the mid 80s, and on Tuesday the high will be close to 80 degrees; the sky will be occasionally cloudy both days.

We expect beautiful early fall weather Wednesday through Friday as dry air settles in; sunny pleasant days, clear cool nights. The coolest morning should come early Wednesday with low to mid 50s likely… cooler pockets across North Alabama could reach the upper 40s. Highs will be in the 77-82 degree range.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, only isolated storms on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through Sunday. Highs upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low 90s inland. Scattered showers will be a little more likely early next week… See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Karl will pass just east of Bermuda tonight, then moving northeast out to sea. TropicaL Storm Lisa is expected to dissipate this weekend in the eastern Atlantic far from land. A new wave just off the coast of Africa will have some potential for development in 3 to 5 days. Just something to watch for now.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today seeing the kids at the Pickens County Early Learning Center in Carrollton… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

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Midday Nowcast: We Stay Hot Through The Weekend

| September 23, 2016 @ 12:34 pm

simuawips

WE STAY HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
At the noon hour across Central Alabama, skies are clear except for a few cumulus clouds over the northwestern part of the area. That also means that the radar is clear of any precipitation. Unfortunately, that will be the story for the remainder of the day. Skies will remain mostly clear and the chance of an afternoon shower is so small that its not even worth mentioning. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s, but fortunately the dewpoints will be in the low 60s so the heat will be bearable. Skies will be partly to mostly clear tonight with the overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY ALERT:
Ozone and Particulate Matter 2.5 level will be high enough to raise the “Code Yellow” Air Quality Alert for the Birmingham metropolitan area today. Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT NOON:
Birmingham 90
Tuscaloosa 91
Gadsden 88
Anniston 90
Cullman 89
Alexander City 90
Auburn 90
Selma 90
Montgomery 91

NORMS AND RECS FOR TODAY IN BIRMINGHAM:
The normal high for September 23rd is 83, while the normal low is 61. The record high for today was set back in 1931 at 99. The record low was set back in 1999 at 42.

NO CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND:
The upper ridge will still be in control of our weather pattern, so that means mostly sunny skies and hot each day, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. The chance for rain on either day is so small that there is really no need in mentioning it in the forecast. Nights will be fair with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

HEADED TO THE BEACH:
About 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend with only widely scattered storms. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

NEXT WEEK:
The long awaited pattern change begins. A strong upper ridge, now over the western U.S., will approach, and drive a cold front in our direction. Clouds increase Monday, and showers are possible as the front gets closer. Unfortunately it won’t be a really big, widespread rain like we need, but at least we have a chance of getting a little rain in the bucket. Monday’s high will drop into the mid 80s.

A lingering shower is possible Tuesday, but cooler, drier air will begin to roll into the state, and it looks like we will enjoy some rather refreshing weather Wednesday through Friday with sunny pleasant days, clear cool nights, and low humidity. Highs will be in the 77-80 degree range, with lows down in the 50s. The GFS is suggesting we could see some 40s over the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama early Wednesday morning.

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TROPICS:
Tropical Storm Karl will recurve in the Atlantic tonight, passing just east of Bermuda, and will head out to sea in the North Atlantic. And, to the east, Tropical Storm Lisa is expected to dissipate over the weekend far from land. A few wave coming off the coast of Africa has some potential for development in 3-5 days; just something to watch for now.

ON THIS DAY IN 2005:
Hurricane Rita reached the Texas/Louisiana border area near Sabine Pass as a category-3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. A storm surge of at least 15 feet flooded parts of Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Terrebonne and Vermilion parishes, where sugar cane crop losses were estimated near $300 million. An 8-foot storm surge in New Orleans overtopped the provisionally-repaired levees (from Hurricane Katrina damage) and caused additional flooding. A total of 10 fatalities were reported, and preliminary damage estimates ranged between $4-5 billion.

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Big Weather Changes Next Week

| September 23, 2016 @ 6:21 am

STILL HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Needless to say, this has been a hot September in Alabama. Based on data from the Birmingham Airport through yesterday, we have reached 90 degrees or higher on 19 of 22 days, with the peak of the heat coming on September 15 when the high was 98. The upper ridge will hold through the weekend, meaning highs between 91 and 95 degrees for most places through Sunday. The ridge also means generally dry weather, with any afternoon showers being few and far between… the chance of any one spot getting wet is so small that we won’t mention it in the forecast. Partly to mostly sunny days, fair nights.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tonight, the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 80s.

Alabama hosts Kent State at Bryant-Denny Stadium tomorrow morning (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures rising from near 88 at kickoff, to 94 degrees by the final whistle.

Auburn will host LSU at Jordan-Hare Stadium tomorrow evening (5:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly clear with temperatures falling through the 80s.

BIG CHANGES NEXT WEEK: The long awaited pattern change begins. A strong upper ridge, now over the western U.S., will approach, and drive a cold front in our direction. Clouds increase Monday, and showers are possible as the front gets closer. Unfortunately it won’t be a really big, widespread rain like we need, but at least we have a chance of getting a little rain in the bucket. Monday’s high will drop into the mid 80s.

A lingering shower is possible Tuesday, but cooler, drier air will begin to roll into the state, and it looks like we will enjoy some rather refreshing weather Wednesday through Friday with sunny pleasant days, clear cool nights, and low humidity. Highs will be in the 77-80 degree range, with lows down in the 50s. The GFS is suggesting we could see some 40s over the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama early Wednesday morning.

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See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated storms through the weekend for the coast from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach through Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Karl will recurve in the Atlantic tonight, passing just east of Bermuda, and will head out to sea in the North Atlantic. And, to the east, Tropical Storm Lisa is expected to dissipate over the weekend far from land. A few wave coming off the coast of Africa has some potential for development in 3-5 days; just something to watch for now.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a program this morning at Carrollton in Pickens County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Heat Levels Fall Next Week

| September 22, 2016 @ 3:30 pm

RADAR CHECK: We actually have a few tiny, isolated showers across Central Alabama this afternoon; you can count the number of showers on one hand, and they have lasted only about 10-15 minutes. Most places are hot and dry with a partly to mostly sunny sky along with temperatures in the low to mid 90s.

TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY: No real change. Mostly sunny days, fair nights, hot afternoons, and little if any risk of showers. Highs will remain in the 90-95 degree range, with morning lows mostly in the upper 60s as the upper ridge holds.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tomorrow night, the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 80s.

Alabama hosts Kent State at Bryant-Denny Stadium Saturday morning (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures rising from near 88 at kickoff, to 93 degrees by the final whistle.

Auburn will host LSU at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday evening (5:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly clear with temperatures falling through the 80s.

NEXT WEEK: A deep upper trough over the western U.S. will get closer, driving a cold front our way. We will bring in a chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday as the front slowly slips into the state. The high Monday will drop into the low 80s, and the new (12Z) GFS run is printing a high of only 77 degrees for Birmingham on Tuesday. A lingering shower is possible Wednesday, but it looks like cooler and drier air will arrive Thursday and Friday. The GFS is showing a low of 56 degrees for Birmingham next Thursday morning (September 29).

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and a few widely scattered storms on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the weekend. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, low 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: Tropical Depression Karl (looks like it is about to regain tropical storm strength), and Tropical Storm Lisa in the Atlantic will recurve, and are no threat to land. A new wave is coming off the coast of Africa, with some potential for slow development in 3-5 days. Nothing threatening the Gulf of Mexico anytime soon, however.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting the first graders at Tarrant Elementary, and the third graders at Erwin Intermediate School in Center Point… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Midday Nowcast: Fall is Here, But Summer Doesn’t Want to Leave

| September 22, 2016 @ 12:35 pm

simuawips

As of 9:21 AM CDT, we have officially crossed over into Astronomical Fall, but it sure doesn’t feel like it outside. As you will see below, temperature readings have already made it up into the upper 80 across Central Alabama at the noon hour, and with almost completely clear skies across the area, they will continue to climb to the low to mid 90s without any interruption. And just like the past few days, radar is completely free of any precipitation and will stay that way through Sunday.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT NOON:
Birmingham 88
Tuscaloosa 89
Gadsden 86
Anniston 88
Cullman 87
Alexander City 90
Auburn 87
Selma 88
Montgomery 88

CARBON COPY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW:
Not much change in the weather with the upper ridge in control of our pattern. Mostly sunny and hot, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s across Central Alabama. Any showers or storms that develop will be confined to South Alabama, well out of our area. Highs will be approximately 10 degrees above our normal high for this part of the year, but with lower dewpoint levels, the heat will not be unbearable.

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NEXT WEEK:
The upper ridge is weakened by an approaching trough, and a cold front will creep closer to Alabama early in the week. This will mean an increase in clouds, a chance of showers, and lower daytime temperatures. Unfortunately, the latest GFS/ECMWF (global model) runs suggest the front won’t be able to push through Alabama, but with it stalling just west and north of here, it looks like there will be some change of badly needed showers each day through the week. And, because of the clouds and showers highs will drop into the low to mid 80s, which is pretty close to average for late September in Alabama (the average high here doesn’t fall into the 70s until early October).

NORMS AND RECS FOR TODAY IN BIRMINGHAM:
The normal high for September 22nd is 83, while the normal low is 61. The record high for today was set back in 1925 at 100. The record low was set back in 1983 at 39.

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY ALERT:
Ozone and Particulate Matter 2.5 level will be high enough to raise the “Code Yellow” Air Quality Alert for the Birmingham metropolitan area today. Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

HEADED TO THE BEACH:
About 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend with only widely scattered storms. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

two_atl_2d0

TROPICS:
Tropical Depression Karl and Tropical Storm Lisa will recurve over the open Atlantic and are no threat to land; the rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

ON THIS DAY IN 1989:
Hurricane Hugo roared ashore just north of Charleston, as a massive Category 4 storm with winds near 140 mph and a storm tide around 20 feet. The hurricane leveled beachfront properties and toppled trees, leaving much of the coastal areas in absolute ruin. Hugo remained strong as it moved into western North Carolina, producing hurricane-force wind gusts all the way to Charlotte. Thirteen people in South Carolina and one person in North Carolina died as a result of the storm (as well as six in Virginia and one in New York). Hurricane Hugo caused $7 billion in damage in the U.S. mainland, making it the costliest hurricane at the time. When adjusted for inflation, it currently ranks as the ninth most costly hurricane in U.S. history, causing almost $13 billion in damage.

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WEATHERBRAINS:
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ADVERTISE WITH US:
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Dry With Hot Afternoons Through Sunday

| September 22, 2016 @ 6:24 am

HELLO FALL: This morning at 9:21 CT the sun will be directly over the equator, and autumn “officially” begins for the northern hemisphere. We have approximately 12 hours of daylight and 12 hours of darkness this time of the year.

Of course, there is no magic switch when it comes to weather, and the summer-like pattern won’t change through the weekend thanks to an upper ridge overhead and dry air. We will continue to forecast mostly sunny days with hot afternoons, and fair pleasant nights through Sunday… any afternoon showers will be confined to far South Alabama, and even there they should be few and far between. Afternoon highs will remain in the low to mid 90s, about 10 degrees above average for late September.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tomorrow night, the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 80s.

Alabama hosts Kent State at Bryant-Denny Stadium Saturday morning (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures rising from near 88 at kickoff, to 93 degrees by the final whistle.

Auburn will host LSU at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday evening (5:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly clear with temperatures falling through the 80s.

CHANGES NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge is weakened by an approaching trough, and a cold front will creep closer to Alabama early in the week. This will mean an increase in clouds, a chance of showers, and lower daytime temperatures. Unfortunately, the latest GFS/ECMWF (global model) runs suggest the front won’t be able to push through Alabama, but with it stalling just west and north of here, it looks like there will be some change of badly needed showers each day through the week. And, because of the clouds and showers highs will drop into the 80 to 84 degree range, which is pretty close to average for late September in Alabama (the average high here doesn’t fall into the 70s until early October).

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Bottom line is that the days with consistent highs in the 90s will be over after this weekend (until next summer).

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and a few widely scattered storms on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the weekend. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, low 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: Tropical Depression Karl and Tropical Storm Lisa will recurve over the open Atlantic and are no threat to land; the rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

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ON THIS DATE IN 1989: Hurricane Hugo roared ashore just north of Charleston, as a massive Category 4 storm with winds near 140 mph and a storm tide around 20 feet. The hurricane leveled beachfront properties and toppled trees, leaving much of the coastal areas in absolute ruin.

Hugo remained strong as it moved into western North Carolina, producing hurricane-force wind gusts all the way to Charlotte. Thirteen people in South Carolina and one person in North Carolina died as a result of the storm (as well as six in Virginia and one in New York). Hurricane Hugo caused $7 billion in damage in the U.S. mainland, making it the costliest hurricane at the time. When adjusted for inflation, it currently ranks as the ninth most costly hurricane in U.S. history, causing almost $13 billion in damage.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
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I have weather programs today at Tarrant Elementary and Erwin Intermediate School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Pattern Change Likely Next Week

| September 21, 2016 @ 3:21 pm

PLEASANT NIGHTS, HOT AFTERNOONS, NO RAIN: The weather just won’t change much across the great state of Alabama through the weekend thanks to an upper ridge, and dry air in place. We are forecasting mostly sunny days and fair nights through Sunday with highs in the low 90s, and lows in the upper 60s. Pretty straight forward forecast.

FALL ARRIVES TOMORROW: This is the last Wednesday of the summer of 2016; the autumnal equinox is tomorrow morning at 9:21 CT when the sun is directly over the equator.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games Friday night, the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 80s.

Alabama hosts Kent State at Bryant-Denny Stadium Saturday morning (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures rising from near 88 at kickoff, to 93 degrees by the final whistle.

Auburn will host LSU at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday evening (5:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly clear with temperatures dropping from near 89 degrees at kickoff to near 80 by the end of the game.

CHANGES NEXT WEEK: Global models show a deep upper trough setting up just west of Alabama; that should drive a cold front in here Monday, and bring us a chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. The front will “run of out gas” somewhere around the Alabama/Georgia line Tuesday. One way or another, heat levels will drop significantly next week; the GFS is printing a high of only 79 degrees for Birmingham Tuesday. Where dry air moves in following the front, 50s are possible by Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

But, with the front becoming nearly stationary over far East Alabama, clouds could linger, and the GFS hints that showers and storms are possible on Wednesday with the front drifting westward across the state. Confidence in specific details is low, but the idea of lower temperatures next week looks likely. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated storms on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the weekend. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: Tropical Depression Karl, in the middle of the Atlantic, is still fighting shear and dry air. If it survives, it will recurve east of Bermuda Saturday, and could briefly strengthen into a hurricane over open water. It is no threat to land.

To the east, Tropical Storm Lisa is moving north/northwest, and will probably dissipate in 3-5 days. It won’t be close to any land mass. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet for now.

screen-shot-2016-09-21-at-3-19-06-pm

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Midday Nowcast: Second Verse, Same As The First

| September 21, 2016 @ 12:05 pm

simuawips

Another carbon copy nowcast… At the noon hour across Central Alabama, no rain is showing up on radar, and the visible satellite image for the area is mostly clear except for a few fair weather cumulus clouds. It is just going to be hard to find a shower or storm out there at all today. The chance of rain is not at zero, but it is so low that there is no need to mention it in the forecast. For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours, it will stay mostly clear and dry, with afternoon highs ranging in the low to mid 90s across the area. With the lower dewpoint levels today, it will make those hot temperatures a little more bearable.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT NOON:
Birmingham: 87
Tuscaloosa: 91
Gadsden: 86
Anniston: 90
Cullman: 87
Alabaster: 88
Alexander City: 90
Auburn: 86
Montgomery: 90
Selma: 90

TOMORROW IS FALL, Y’ALL:
The Autumnal Equinox takes place tomorrow morning at 9:21 AM CDT, but unfortunately Fall’s arrival isn’t going to help out in the rain department for now. This dry weather pattern will stay in place over Central Alabama through the rest of the week and weekend, as skies will be mostly sunny with afternoon highs ranging in the low to mid 90s. No rain is expected for tomorrow, and pretty much through the rest of the work week and weekend.

NEXT WEEK:
Cross your fingers, as the GFS is showing a frontal passage early on Tuesday, which means that we can now mention a chance of showers and storms for Monday evening through early Tuesday. This passage will also allow for cooler and drier air to filter in behind it for the middle of the week. Highs will drop back into low 80s, with overnight lows in the 50s. We’ll continue to keep an eye on this as it looks like we’ll finally get to say goodbye to the oppressive heat for 2016.

TODAY’S CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM:
The normal high for September 21st is 83, while the normal low is 61. The record high for today was set back in 1925 at 98. The record low was set back in 1918 at 42.

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY ALERT:
Ozone and Particulate Matter 2.5 level will be high enough to raise the “Code Yellow” Air Quality Alert for the Birmingham metropolitan area today. Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

HEADED TO THE BEACH:
About 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend with only widely scattered storms. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

two_atl_2d0

TROPICS:
Karl has been downgraded to a tropical depression in the Central Atlantic; it will recurve east of Bermuda this weekend and is no threat to land, although strengthening is possible in a few days. Tropical Storm Lisa in the eastern Atlantic will move north/northwest, and is no threat to land. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

ON THIS DAY IN 1989:
Hurricane Hugo slammed into the South Carolina coast about 11 PM, making landfall near Sullivans Island. Hugo was directly responsible for thirteen deaths, and indirectly responsible for twenty-two others. A total of 420 persons were injured in the hurricane, and damage was estimated at eight billion dollars, including two billion dollars damage to crops. Sustained winds reached 85 mph at Folly Beach SC, with wind gusts as high was 138 mph. Wind gusts reached 98 mph at Charleston, and 1S09 mph at Shaw AFB. The biggest storm surge occurred in the McClellanville and Bulls Bay area of Charleston County, with a storm surge of 20.2 feet reported at Seewee Bay. Shrimp boats were found one half mile inland at McClellanville.

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Dry Through Sunday; Changes Next Week

| September 21, 2016 @ 5:59 am

PLEASANT MORNINGS, HOT AFTERNOONS: Once again we are seeing some upper 50s in cooler pockets across Northeast Alabama as this day begins. Vic Bell at Black Creek reports 58 degrees just before daybreak… Fort Payne is at 59.

A dry airmass stays in place for a while, and with upper ridging afternoons will remain fairly hot for September despite the cool mornings. We project highs in the 90-93 degree range through the weekend, almost ten degrees above average for late September in Alabama. But, lower dew points will mean humidity values only in the 20-35 range during the peak of the heat each day. Expect mostly sunny days and fair nights today through Sunday.

FALL ARRIVES TOMORROW: This is the last Wednesday of the summer of 2016; the autumnal equinox is tomorrow morning at 9:21 CT when the sun is directly over the equator.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games Friday night, the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 80s.

Alabama hosts Kent State at Bryant-Denny Stadium Saturday morning (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures rising from near 87 at kickoff, to 92 degrees by the final whistle.

Auburn will host LSU at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday evening (5:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly clear with temperatures dropping from near 89 degrees at kickoff to near 80 by the end of the game.

CHANGES NEXT WEEK: The GFS is now showing a decent frontal passage early Tuesday, meaning we can mention a chance of showers and storms Monday night and early Tuesday, followed by cooler/drier air for the middle of next week. Highs drop to near 80, with lows in the 55-60 degree range for most. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

gfs_z500a_noram_28

AT THE BEACH: About 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily on the Gulf Coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend with only isolated thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast 86-89, with low 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: Karl has been downgraded to a tropical depression in the Central Atlantic; it will recurve east of Bermuda this weekend and is no threat to land, although strengthening is possible in a few days.

Tropical Storm Lisa in the eastern Atlantic will move north/northwest, and is no threat to land. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

screen-shot-2016-09-21-at-5-58-31-am

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I am going a safety program this morning for employees at a Regions Bank facility in Riverchase… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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