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Round One in Progress, Round Two Tonight

| January 21, 2017 @ 7:14 am

No WeatherXtreme Video this morning. Brian is off galavanting in the Chaser, so here is your morning forecast discussion.

Our well advertised morning rain and thunderstorm event is in progress across Central Alabama. The complex arrived in West Alabama before sunrise after wreaking havoc across southern Mississippi overnight. A significant tornado struck the Hattiesburg and Petal areas of SE Mississippi just after 4 a.m. It crossed I-59 about 1 mile south of FOrrest General Hospital. William Carey University suffered damage and a fire station was struck. There are injuries reported. This storm moved into Choctaw County, Alabama, where some wind damage reports were received. It weakened though as it moved into Marengo County, Alabama.

MORNING MESO
This morning’s activity is associated with a well developed mesoscale convective vortex that will track just south of I-59 through the morning. It was passing south of Tuscaloosa as I wrote this. The large area of rain and embedded thunder will continue along and north of the track, but no severe weather is expected with this activity. To the south,there is still the chance of damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two. A tornado watch remains in effect until 11 a.m. for counties south of the row of counties that includes Hale, Bibb, Shelby, Talladega, Clay and Randolph.

BACK EDGE
The rain should end in Tuscaloosa by 10 a.m. and Birmingham before 11 a.m. The heaviest rain will be out of the Birmingham area by 9:30 a.m. or so. One to two inch amounts should be pretty common across the area.

CLEARING COMES LATER
Within a couple of hours after the rain departs, you will see clearing skies. This increasing sunshine will allow the mercury to top out around 70F.

TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
The threat for more severe weather will increase once again for the late night hours tonight through the morning hours on Sunday. Another shortwave will move out of the low pressure center that is located in the Southern Plains. Latest guidance is showing more thunderstorms developing and moving into the northwestern parts of Central Alabama sometime after 11:00 PM tonight. Stronger low-level shear will lead to the potential for isolated tornadoes across the area, but the higher chances for those located in the southeastern portions of the area. There will be a higher hail threat for the storms that will be moving through the northwestern locations of the area due to a cold core type setup. The threat of golf ball size hail or higher, damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes will exist for these northwestern locations. For the locations in-between these two higher risk areas, threats will be lower. There will be enough low-level shear and instability for a limited risk for small hail, damaging winds, and a brief tornado is not out of the question. Timing for strong to severe storms will be from 11:00 PM tonight until 6:00 AM tomorrow morning.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
Looking at the latest run of the NAM 3km model, there will be several rounds of rain moving through the area for the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. There will be a few breaks in the rain coverage, so it will not be a complete wash-out. Afternoon highs will be in the lower to mid 60s for the early afternoon hours, and will fall into the mid 40s for the overnight low. No severe weather will be expected after 6:00 AM. Rain totals through the day will mostly be around 1.00 inches or less throughout the area, with a few locations in the northeastern corner of the state possibly picking up a little more.

BENIGN, AND THEN COOLER
Showers associated with the cold core, upper level low should move out early Monday morning with clearing skies and a brisk northwest wind. Highs on Monday should be limited to the lower 50s, but the real airmass change won’t come until later in the week. Expect 30s Tuesday morning and 40s Wednesday morning, with highs both days in the 60s. As a trough moves eastward across the northern United States, it will allow colder air to infiltrate the Southeast by Wednesday night and Thursday. There could be a few showers with this front, and temperatures will drop behind it. Highs will be in the 50s Thursday, but struggle to reach 50F on Friday. 40s will be commonplace on Saturday. Lows will go back below freezing for the end of the week.

HEADED TO THE BEACH
Showers and thunderstorms are likely throughout the day today and tomorrow, but partly sunny skies return for the first part of the week. Highs will be in the 70s throughout the weekend, then briefly falling back into 60s for Monday and Tuesday. Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

COME HEAR TIM MARSHALL
Hey, are you a member of the Central Alabama Chapter of the National Weather Association? You love weather, right? Then you should be! Come hear a world class weather speaker Tuesday evening at Vulcan, when Tim Marshall will share his countless tornado stories. $10 will get you in, unless you’re a member, which is only $25 for the year. Join on the spot or online. Meet and greet at 6, meeting starts at 630. Be there!

WEATHERBRAINS
The weekly netcast that’s all about the weather had a great time visiting with Jesse Haro, the Meteorologist in Charge at the National Weather Service in San Francisco. He shared lots of information about California weather and meteorology and social media. Check out the show on iTunes or at WeatherBrains.com. Tim Marshall will be next week’s guest in a special Tuesday night appearance.

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Tornado Warning Continues For Parts of Lowndes & Autauga Counties Until 7:45 AM CST

| January 21, 2017 @ 7:07 am

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN LOWNDES AND SOUTHEASTERN AUTAUGA COUNTIES…

At 710 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over White Hall, or 11 miles north of Mosses, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include…
Prattville, Millbrook, Deatsville, Autaugaville, White Hall, Autauga
County Airport, Booth and Robert F. Henry Lock And Dam.
__________________________________________________________________

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…
Northwestern Lowndes County in south central Alabama…
Southeastern Autauga County in Alabama…

* Until 745 AM CST

* At 701 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Benton, or 11 miles northwest of Mosses, moving
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include…
Prattville, Millbrook, Deatsville, Autaugaville, White Hall,
Benton, Autauga County Airport, Booth and Robert F. Henry Lock And
Dam.

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Perry County Storm Will Affect Bibb/Chilton Counties

| January 21, 2017 @ 6:02 am

A fairly significant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) appears to be developing this morning over West Central Alabama. It is at the head of a line of storms that trails back into southeastern Louisiana.

Just ahead of it, a lone storm is embedded in the rain area over Perry County. It is passing near Marion right now, but it will be into southeastern Bibb and Chilton Counties between 615-630 a.m.

It is not severe at this time, but has lots of lightning, heavy rain, strong winds and perhaps some small hail. There could be an increasing wind damage threat with this storm. Areas north of Selma could get some damaging winds.

Right behind it is the storm that has produced significant tornado damage across the Petal and Hattiesburg areas of southeastern Mississippi. That is near the apex of the MCV over southern Marengo County, where a tornado warning remains in effect. The greatest threat of a tornado is just south of Linden into the Thomaston and Uniontown areas. This storm will impact Perry County and western Dallas County as early as 630 a.m.

LATE REPORT 604 AM
Marengo E911 just paged out that they have a report of possible tornado touchdown on Highway 69 near Putnam. That is well south of Demopolis and southwest of Sweet Water.

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Update for the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham Areas; Main Concern is in Tornado Watch Area

| January 21, 2017 @ 5:26 am

Everything is on track with Round One of our multi-round severe weather event on this early Saturday morning.

a large complex of rain and thunderstorms is lifting northeastward into Southwest and West Central Alabama at this hour along a warm front.

Tornado watch outlined in purple, tornado warnings in red. Dewpoints are the values shown.

Rain with some occasional thunder extends as far north as a line from Millport and Reform in West Alabama to Tuscaloosa, Lake View, Alabaster, Calera, Rockford, Alex City, Auburn and Phenix City.

Strong storms are in the Montgomery area right now, extending up to Rockford and Alexander City. These storms prompted a severe thunderstorm warning earlier for Lowndes County. Others are in the Tallassee area and approaching Auburn. Not severe at this time, but lots of lightning and heavy rain and gusty winds.

For the Tuscaloosa area, just rain and occasional lightning it appears for the next 3-4 hours.

Rain will increase in the Birmingham area of the next hour and become heavier with occasional thunder.

The main concern is further south in the tornado watch area, mainly through Marengo, Hale, Perry, Bibb, Chilton, Shelby, Talladega, Clay and Randolph Counties and points further south where supercells and other strong storms are producing a major tornado threat.

A tornado warning was just issued for Marengo County. Sweet Water and Thomaston are in the path of this dangerous storm that has produced significant tornado damage.

Damage is severe in the Hattiesburg MS area with injuries. I-59 is blocked at the Forrest/Jones County line just north of Hattiesburg. Now flooding is being reported across the Southern Miss campus. A large flash flood warning is in effect for several counties in southern Mississippi.

A DAMAGE SUCCESS STORY
A tornado struck a trailer off Highway 29 near Runnelstown in Perry County, MS around 409 a.m. Rescuers looking for the family found them later. They had gotten out ahead of the tornado and were safe!

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Tornado Warning for Southeastern Marengo County Until 6:15 AM CST Has Expired

| January 21, 2017 @ 5:24 am

Tornado warning has expired for Marengo County, as the rotation has weakened considerably.
__________________________________________________________________

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MARENGO COUNTY…

At 605 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Magnolia, or 11 miles southeast of Linden, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include…
Linden, Uniontown, Thomaston, Dayton, Dixons Mill, Magnolia,
Surginer, Wayne, Consul, Miller, Freddie Jones Field, Octagon,
Calvary and Clayhill.
__________________________________________________________________

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MARENGO COUNTY…

At 557 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Miller, or 11 miles south of Linden, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include…
Linden, Uniontown, Thomaston, Dayton, Dixons Mill, Magnolia,
Surginer, Wayne, Consul, Miller, Freddie Jones Field, Octagon,
Calvary and Clayhill.
__________________________________________________________________

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CST FOR MARENGO
COUNTY…

At 543 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Nanafalia, or 15 miles east of Butler, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include…
Linden, Uniontown, Thomaston, Sweet Water, Dayton, Nanafalia, Dixons
Mill, Magnolia, Surginer, Wayne, Vineland, Consul, Shawnee, Miller,
Freddie Jones Field, Putnam, Octagon, Half Acre, Calvary and
Nicholsville.

__________________________________________________________________

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CST FOR MARENGO
COUNTY…

At 533 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Putnam, or 9 miles southeast of Butler, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include…
Linden, Uniontown, Thomaston, Sweet Water, Dayton, Nanafalia, Dixons
Mill, Magnolia, Surginer, Wayne, Vineland, Consul, Shawnee, Miller,
Freddie Jones Field, Putnam, Octagon, Half Acre, Calvary and
Nicholsville.

__________________________________________________________________

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…
Marengo County in southwestern Alabama…

* Until 615 AM CST

* At 521 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Toxey, or 10 miles south of Butler, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include…
Linden, Uniontown, Thomaston, Sweet Water, Dayton, Nanafalia,
Dixons Mill, Magnolia, Surginer, Wayne, Vineland, Consul, Shawnee,
Miller, Freddie Jones Field, Putnam, Octagon, Half Acre, Calvary
and Nicholsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

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Heads Up Marengo County; Significant Tornado Hit Hattiesburg Earlier

| January 21, 2017 @ 5:08 am

Tornadic thunderstorms are over southern Butler County and over Wayne County, Mississippi right now and will be affecting Marengo County shortly.

Strong radar indication of tornado near Silas or south of Gilbertown will pass north of Coffeyville. This storm produced a tornado at Hattiesburg earlier that has done considerable damage.

Another rotation is just west of Butler. It will move near Lisman and Pennington.

Take cover now!

These storms will both move into Marengo County shortly. Expect a tornado warning soon.

There is another storm over Marengo County now near Linden. The NWS is watching it as well. It has rotation aloft.

All of these storms will also begin to impact Perry, Dallas and northern Wilcox Counties in 60-90 minutes between 6L15-6:45.

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Severe T-Storm Warning for Central Lowndes County Has Been Cancelled

| January 21, 2017 @ 4:23 am

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

________________________________________________________

At 435 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Mosses, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD…Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include…
Mosses, Hayneville, White Hall, Gordonville, Lowndesboro, Beechwood
and Manack.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

________________________________________________________

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Central Lowndes County in south central Alabama…

* Until 515 AM CST

* At 419 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles west of
Gordonville, or 12 miles west of Mosses, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include…
Mosses, Hayneville, White Hall, Gordonville, Lowndesboro,
Beechwood, Manack, Collirene, Fostoria and Farmersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

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A New Tornado Watch For Parts Of Central Alabama Until 11:00 AM CST

| January 21, 2017 @ 4:02 am

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch in effect until 11:00 AM CST this morning for the counties in yellow on our map. This includes the cities of Alabaster, Alexander City, Ashland, Auburn, Brent, Centreville, Clanton, Columbiana, Demopolis, Eufaula, Eutaw, Fort Deposit, Greensboro, Lanett, Linden, Lineville, Livingston, Lowndesboro, Marion, Millbrook, Montgomery, Moundville, Opelika, Pelham, Phenix City, Prattville, Roanoke, Rockford, Selma, Sylacauga, Talladega, Troy, Tuskegee, Union Springs, Uniontown, Valley, Wetumpka And York.

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