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Hot, Muggy Alabama Weather; Active Tropics

| August 24, 2016 @ 6:35 am

RIDGE RULES: The upper ridge will hold across Alabama and the Deep South through the weekend, meaning little day to day change in our weather; partly sunny, hot, humid days with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally during the afternoon and evening hours (2-8 p.m.). The chance of any one spot seeing a shower or storm today is about one in four, and the high will be in the low 90s. A few communities could see mid 90s by Friday, but highs will be mostly in the 90-94 degree range through Sunday.

This is just what you expect in August in Alabama. Then, next week, our weather will all depend on the tropical weather situation, which will dominate the discussion this morning.

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GASTON: The tropical storm in the Central Atlantic should become a hurricane today, it will move more northward, and should recurve over the open water east of Bermuda, and is no threat to land.

INVEST 99L: This is the one getting all the attention simply because it has a decent chance of impacting some part of the U.S. Here is the current thinking…

*Seems like a CDO (central dense overcast) is developing early this morning, meaning there is a chance the wave is finally beginning to get it’s act together.

*Slow development is likely over the next few days, and confidence is high the system will pass just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, reaching the Bahamas this weekend.

*It is very important to understand that forecasting the track and intensity will be almost impossible until we get a well defined low level circulation center, and a better sampling of the environmental conditions by NOAA’s Gulfstream-IV jet. We all play the “model map” game, but it is still more of a “guessing game” at this early phase of the game.

*Could this move across South Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico? Yes. But, not a certainty. If it does, it could wind up anywhere from Galveston to Panama City Beach next week. Nobody knows; no need to cancel vacation plans.

*If this becomes a tropical storm, the name will be “Hermine”… (her-MEEN)

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Just keep up with the blog posts in coming days, and a much higher forecast solution will evolve. But you need to be working with current information. See the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Very nice weather continues on the Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the weekend; about 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily with widely scattered showers or storms. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. If a tropical system does get into the Gulf of Mexico, there will be no impact until sometime next week (if there is any impact at all). See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be at Children’s of Alabama this morning doing a weather program… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Eyes On The Tropics

| August 23, 2016 @ 3:30 pm

RADAR CHECK: We have a few widely scattered showers and storms this afternoon, mainly over Northwest Alabama… moving eastward. Nothing widespread, and many places are dry…

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Temperatures are pretty close to 90 degrees in most places.

REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: With an upper ridge in place, we really don’t expect much day to day weather change through the weekend. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with “widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” each day. Highs mostly in the low 90s… a few spots could ease up into the mid 90s late this week. Way too early to be thinking about cool, crisp, autumn weather. First good front of the season usually arrives in mid to late September, about a month from now.

The weather next week will depend on the tropical weather situation, which gathers most of the attention this afternoon…

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FIONA IS FINISHED: The depression is now an open wave, and advisories are no longer being issued by NHC. We will keep eye on the “ghost of Fiona”, but odds of regeneration are small.

TROPICAL STORM GASTON: Should become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow in the eastern Atlantic. It will be gaining latitude, and should recurve into the open Atlantic, and is no threat to land.

INVEST 99L: This is the one that will produce weeping and gnashing of teeth over the next 5 to 7 days. Let’s make some important points about this wave, which is nearing the Leeward Islands this afternoon:

*There is a chance this won’t develop at all due to dry air and shear. Unlikely, but a chance.

*A hurricane hunter was in the system today, and could not find a closed circulation. This isn’t even a tropical depression now, and until it gets it’s act together, forecasting future positions and intensity is very challenging.

*Tropical models are tightly clustered; pushing the system to the Bahamas in five days.

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*Beyond that, there is little agreement in global models concerning the long term destination. The 12Z GFS (American) model basically dissipates the system around the Bahamas, with no threat to the U.S. However, the 12Z ECMWF (European) model moves it across the Florida Peninsula, and into the Gulf of Mexico, with a landfall near Gulf Shores next Tuesday night. Understand that run of the Euro is an outlier; taking the ensemble approach, a more likely track is over South Florida, with a turn to the north well east of Alabama.

*Nobody, and I mean nobody knows the ultimate destination and intensity of this, IF it develops at all. We all just need to pay attention, and forecast confidence will grow in coming days.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Midday Nowcast: Hot And Humid, Tropics Are Active

| August 23, 2016 @ 11:26 am

radar

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Skies at this hour across much of Central Alabama are mostly clear, with the exception being the northwestern parts of the area as there are a few more clouds moving to the east. There is one shower that has popped up in the extreme northern part of Marion County and the southern part of Franklin County. Currently it is slowly moving to the east-northeast.

TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR: Heat is building as we start to reach the daytime maximum temperatures for the day across the area. Here is a list of temperature observations from across the area:

Birmingham 86
Tuscaloosa 88
Gadsden 82
Anniston 86
Haleyville 81
Jasper 88
Alabaster 84
Alexander City 90
Montgomery 90
Selma 86

WHAT TO EXPECT FOR TODAY: We are back to a typical summertime weather pattern across Central Alabama for today. It will be hot and humid out there this afternoon, with a small risk for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will be at or just over 90 degrees for the most part. The odds of any one spot getting rain today will be around one in four.

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY: The Air Quality Index for the Birmingham Metropolitan Area will be in the “Code Yellow” for ozone and particulate matter 2.5. Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

TODAY’S CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high for August 23rd is 90, while the normal low is 68. The record high for today was set back in 2007 at 105. The record low was set back in 1950 at 54.

WEDNESDAY’S WEATHER: Much of the same news for tomorrow, as it looks like the typical summertime weather pattern will be in place at least until Friday. It will be hot and humid, with partly to mostly clear skies, and a small risk for widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the low 90s, with a few spots reaching the mid 90s. The odds of any one spot getting rain today will be around one in four.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: Great weather on the Gulf Coast through the weekend; about 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily with just a few widely scattered showers and storms from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach. Highs hold in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

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TROPICAL STORM FIONA: This one is hanging on in the open Atlantic, and should dissipate between the U.S. coast and Bermuda over the next few days. No threat to land.

TROPICAL STORM GASTON: It is in the eastern Atlantic, and should become a hurricane soon. But, it will gain latitude and this will recurve; no threat to land.

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INVEST 99L: This is the one that we need to watch. Slow development is expected through the rest of the week and may become Tropical Storm Hermine by the end of the week as it moves north of Puerto Rico toward the Bahamas. At this point, model consistency has not been good, but latest runs over the past 24 hours has a shift to the left in its projected track, making it a threat tot he Florida Peninsula. Its too early to be able to tell where exactly it will go, but once the system becomes better organized, we can get a better idea.

ON THIS DATE IN 1988: Thunderstorms produced hail an inch in diameter, wind gusts to 64 mph, and 2.62 inches of rain at Tucson AZ resulting in three million dollars damage. Cool weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Hartford CT reported a record low of 42 degrees.

WEATHERBRAINS: This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.

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Routine August Weather For Alabama; Active Tropics

| August 23, 2016 @ 6:30 am

HOT WEATHER: Just because school is back in session, that doesn’t mean that the weather magically cools down in Alabama. Keep in mind this is still August, and the weather should be hot and humid this time of the year. And, as an upper ridge begins to rebuild across the Deep South, we have some pretty classic August weather coming up in the days ahead.

Each day through Friday, expect a partly sunny sky with widely scattered showers and storms around during the afternoon and evening hours. Chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in four, and highs will be generally in the low 90s. A few spots could reach the mid 90s Thursday and Friday under the ridge.

THE WEEKEND: The synoptic pattern won’t change, and there is no real reason to change the forecast. Highs 91-95 degrees, partly sunny days, fair nights, and the risk of widely scattered showers and storms during the afternoon/evening hours, generally between 2 and 8 p.m.

And, the same general idea continues into early next week, unless by chance we have some tropical mischief around here.

TROPICAL TRIO: We still have three systems to discuss in the Atlantic basin this morning…

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA: This one is hanging on in the open Atlantic, and should dissipate between the U.S. coast and Bermuda over the next few days. No threat to land.

TROPICAL STORM GASTON: It is in the eastern Atlantic, and should become a hurricane soon. But, it will gain latitude and this will recurve; no threat to land.

INVEST 99L: Clearly this is the most intriguing system on the board, and is the one to watch. Some slow development is possible through mid-week, and it could become Tropical Storm Hermine by the end of the week as it moves north of Puerto Rico toward the Bahamas.

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From the position near the Bahamas, this could recurve into the Atlantic, or move westward into South Florida. The strength of the ridge north of the system will determine this, and model consistency has not been especially good. We note there has been a shift to the left in model output over the past 24 hours, and a number of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members do indeed make this a threat to the Florida Peninsula.

One way or another, there is a high chance this turns northward before reaching Alabama, but still too early in the game to know for sure. Once the system becomes better organized, and we get better sampling of the atmosphere in the region of the storm, forecast confidence will go higher.

See the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Great weather on the Gulf Coast through the weekend; about 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily with just a few widely scattered showers and storms from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach. Highs hold in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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WeatherBrains 553: Most Exposed Guy

| August 23, 2016 @ 5:15 am

WeatherBrains Episode 553 is now online (August 22, 2016). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Jeremy Scott SmithOur Guest WeatherBrain for this episode is a Senior Meteorologist at FedEx Global Operations Control Center, Jeremy Scott Smith. He’s also a contributor for Ray’s Weather Center, covering the Appalachian Mountains of NC at VA, a former meteorologist at the United States Air Force and Air Force Reserve with 10 years of experience in aviation meteorology. He has 2.5 years on the media side with a B.S. from Mississippi State and he is working toward a M.S. at University of North Dakota in Space Science.

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a suggestion of listener and contributor Tony Rice. Jeremy, welcome to the show!!!

Greg DubinJoining Jeremy as tonight’s second Guest WeatherBrain is a flight dispatcher for a major legacy carrier in the U.S., Greg Dubin. Since he is not an official spokesperson, we will call his employer “Global Airlines.” Depending on how tonight’s show goes, he will be entering the WeatherBrains Guest Protection Program. He has spent many years in flight operations including several as a dispatcher. He is a ham radio operator, loves aviation and traveling, and, of course, weather. Greg, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Jeremy, we want to thank FedEx for being the Title Sponsor of the upcoming National Weather Association WeatherReady Fest at the Nauticus Science Museum in Norfolk on Saturday, September 10th.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 113 at Death Valley, CA, and 27 at Stanley, ID, Bondurant, WY, & Yellowstone National Park South Entrance, WY
  • Tropics have heated up
  • Have Fiona, TD 7, and a disturbed area approaching Leeward Islands
  • Some heat in northern Rockies
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: Do you have any idea what a WEA is? I suspect that most people do not, so this episode is a description of what a WEA is and when you can expect to see one. If you want even more information about WEAs after you hear this episode, you can find an informational document here.

Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 553:

FedEx USA

Ray’s weather center

To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

Nate Johnson – Aviation weather site

Brian Peters – Boston Globe article about tornado in Concord

Kevin Selle – #WeLoveWeather Twitter account

Rick Smith – Louisiana flood raises questions

James Spann – NHC pronunciation guide

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

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Dry Air Holds Over Far North Alabama

| August 22, 2016 @ 3:33 pm

RADAR CHECK: Showers and storms are moving eastward across Central Alabama… mostly south of a stalled surface front from near Hamilton to Oneonta to Heflin…

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Those north of the front, up in the Tennessee Valley, are enjoying lower humidity levels and a very pleasant day. But, muggy tropical air will push northward tonight… we all know that shots of dry, continental air don’t last long this time of the year.

The showers and storms over Central Alabama will wind down later this evening once the sun goes down.

TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: The upper ridge will rebuild across the Deep South, setting up some classic August weather each day. Partly sunny, hot, humid, and the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms”. The storms will be widely scattered, generally speaking, than last week. Highs will be mostly in the low 90s; a few spots could reach the mid 90s late in the week.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: It’s a persistence forecast. No real change… highs 90-95, partly sunny days, with a passing shower or storm possible during the afternoon and evening hours. And, of course, the storms on summer afternoons here are very random and scattered, and there is no way of knowing in advance where and when they pop up.

The same pattern holds into next week as the upper ridge remains in place. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: About 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily on the coast through the weekend (from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores)… widely scattered showers and storms remain possible each day, but nothing widespread. Highs on the immediate coast in the upper 80s, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICAL TRIO: As you might expect, we have action in the Atlantic basin.

FIONA: This is a weakening tropical depression hanging on for dear life; it should dissipate over the next day or two over the open water of the Central Atlantic; no threat to land.

90L: This is a well organized tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic; it has a high chance of becoming Tropical Storm Gaston within the next 24 hours. But, it will be gaining latitude, and should recurve over the open water. Like Fiona, this seems to be no threat to land.

99L: This wave has a chance of slow development in coming days; it is currently fighting dry air surrounding the system. Most models bring this to a point east of the Bahamas in five days; it is simply too early to know if this will recurve over the open Atlantic, or be a threat to the U.S. Atlantic coast. Odds are high this will not impact the Gulf of Mexico.

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See the Weather Xtreme video for more details on the tropics.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Midday Nowcast: A Tale of Two Air Masses

| August 22, 2016 @ 12:08 pm

The state of Alabama is currently being bisected by a stalled frontal boundary roughly along the U.S. 80 corridor running from Demopolis east to Selma, Montgomery, and Phenix City. Just to the north of this boundary and across South Alabama, it remains rather muggy with dew points in the 70s, however, across northern portions of Alabama, dew points are in 50s and 60s and oh so comfortable.

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The drier air is ever so slowly trying to move south through the state, but it is having a hard time doing so as the upper-level support is lacking. Due to the continue elevated dew points roughly along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor, the threat of showers and storms will remain in the forecast for this afternoon. For northern portions of the state, temperatures are in the 70s at midday, while 80s and 90s are widespread for the southern two-thirds of the state.

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Outside early this afternoon we are seeing more sun than clouds, but clouds will continue to increase in coverage the next several hours as those showers and storms start to develop across the state.

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Speaking of those showers and storms, they are beginning to pop-up across the Alabama landscape. As we have seen the past several weeks, storms that develop today are going to produce brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. The majority of today’s activity will be along and south of Interstate 20, however, showers are possible north of there, as far north as the U.S. 278 corridor.

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The rest of today, look for a mix of sun and clouds, with scattered showers and storms that will likely continue at least through the evening hours, before gradually winding down overnight. Lows tonight will be able to get down into the 60s east of Interstate 65, while lower 70s expected west of there. You will notice the slightly direr and less humid air.

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Drier Air Over Far North Alabama

| August 22, 2016 @ 6:19 am

ON THE MAPS: A rare August surface front is over North Alabama this morning; the dew point has dropped to a pleasant 63 degrees at Muscle Shoals, and north of the front most places are seeing temperatures in the 60s. South of the front, the weather is still humid with 70s.

Unfortunately, the front has just about run out of gas, and will hang up a little north of I-20 today. So, those of you in places like Huntsville, Cullman, Gadsden, Florence, Fort Payne, and Scottsboro will enjoy a mostly sunny and less humid day with a high in the 80s.

However, south of the stalled front, scattered showers and storms will fire up this afternoon, generally along and south of I-20. Higher coverage of storms will be over the southern half of the state, and we project a high in the 85-89 degree range for most communities.

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REST OF THE WEEK: The front will wash out, and moist air slides northward. And, as an upper ridge builds, we project some very routine August weather tomorrow through Friday. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with the risk of scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Due to the ridge, the coverage of showers and storms each day won’t be as high as recent days, and heat levels will creep up with highs generally in the low 90s.

THE WEEKEND: No real change. Hot and humid, partly sunny days, and an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in spots. Highs 91-94; chance of any one spot getting wet Saturday and Sunday afternoon will be about one in four.

And, the overall pattern won’t change much next week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Nice weather this week from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores; about 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily with just a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast 87-90, with low to mid 90s inland. Sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 88 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: As you might expect in late August, things are getting active…

FIONA: This is now a tropical depression fighting very dry air, and should dissipate in coming days far from land over the middle of the Atlantic.

90L: A well organized disturbance in the eastern Atlantic will become a tropical depression soon, and probably will be a tropical storm within 24 hours. But, this will recurve over the Atlantic and won’t be a threat to the U.S.

99L: This is a more latitude system, and could gradually develop this week. If it can get it’s act together, it will begin to gain latitude and miss the Caribbean, and should be east of the Bahamas in five days. Remains to be seen if it will turn toward the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S., or recurve into the open Atlantic. There is a high chance this won’t reach the Gulf of Mexico.

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Again, we stress there is no sign of tropical trouble for the Gulf of Mexico for the rest of August. Lots of very bad information floating around social media.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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More Scattered Storms this Afternoon

| August 21, 2016 @ 1:18 pm

More mugginess today as we are anxiously watching the weak front to our northwest trying to move south. Early this afternoon, the front is located from near Buffalo, New York, southeast into the Tennessee Valley of Alabama. This boundary will continue to sink southward today and overnight, but it is slowing down.

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This will be the focal point for the showers and storms we are and will be seeing out there today and this evening. These are tracking towards the east and will persist into the evening hours. They will produce brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and lots of lightning.

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HOW FAR SOUTH WILL FRONT MAKE IT?: The upper-level support for the front will be sliding more east than south, and that will cause the front to stall across Central Alabama tomorrow, and it looks to do that around the Interstate 20 corridor. It is August in Alabama and getting a front to push through the state is very hard. North of the front, expect dry conditions, with humid and scattered showers and storms south of the front tomorrow.

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Numerous Showers/Storms Again Today

| August 21, 2016 @ 7:19 am

Much of the northern half of Alabama is waking up to a cloudy sky while the southern half of the state remained mostly clear. Showers were a bit more active this morning across the Tennessee River Valley ahead of a cold front sinking slowly southward into the Southeast US as the strong upper trough moves through the Great Lakes region. I expect to see showers and storms become numerous again across much of Central and North Alabama today as many of us will see measurable rain. The presence of more clouds and numerous showers should help to keep temperatures confined to the upper 80s for highs.

BMX

For beachgoers, there is going to be a standard summer pattern with more sun than clouds, but there will be those daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Highs along the beach will be in the upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 70s. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 87 degrees. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here.

The threat for severe storms is somewhat limited over the next three days. There is a marginal risk today along the Mid-Atlantic States northward across eastern Pennsylvania into New York. No areas of severe weather are outlined on Monday. By Day 3 or Tuesday there is a large area of marginal risk from Kansas northward to Minnesota.

But the tropics are alive! Fiona has managed to defy forecasters by maintaining her strength at tropical storm force. Fiona had entered a region of increased westerly shear, so the low level center has become clearly exposed. The track will take the storm westward before recurving to the north around Bermuda. The intensity is expected to fall off on Tuesday as the storm drops into the depression category.

The area about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, Invest 99L, is beginning to look a little less ragged and has a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next five days as it enters an area with conditions more favorable for development. Long range track is still suggesting it may reach the Bahamas late in the week. Invest 90L is looking fairly good as it emerges from the African continent. Model guidance is suggesting this storm will move west for the next couple of days before turning more northwestward into the Central Atlantic following along more closely to Fiona.

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The upper trough responsible for bringing the front into the US will move into New England on Monday putting an end to the forward progress of the front. GFS MOS guidance has backed off on bringing the dew points down as much, so the front may stall out closer to Central Alabama than South Alabama. It still looks like we will see some drop off on the dew points, so I’m cautiously optimistic that Monday will be dry with showers mainly across South Alabama.

As the surface high slides across the Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday we should see a northeasterly flow bring drier air into the Southeast US, so Tuesday still looks to be a dry day with slightly less humidity. But the upper ridge builds in quickly on Wednesday and the surface flow here will come back around to the south wiping out the drier air and bringing chances for showers and storms back into the forecast. It looks like showers and storms will be driven by the heating of the afternoon, so they should be fairly scattered with most people remaining dry. The highs Wednesday should be back around 90.

The upper ridge is forecast to remain in place over the Southeast US well into the weekend with a broad surface high in place. This keeps those daily chances for showers and storms in the forecast along with highs in the lower 90s. We will be contending with Invest 99L as it approaches the Bahamas. The GFS seems to be more bullish on bringing the tropical system into the Bahamas, stalling it, then taking it northeasterly into the Atlantic. The ECMWF, on the other hand, has little in the way of a tropical system in the Bahamas preferring to keep everything well out in the Atlantic. So a good deal of uncertainty as to the future course of Invest 99L.

Looking into voodoo country which is what we call the long range, the GFS features a large upper ridge across the southern tier of the US around August 31st. But that ridge breaks down around September 3rd with the development of a trough over the eastern half of the country. The trough does not last long with the ridge over the southwestern US pushing back into the eastern part of the country by September 5th. This would surely suggest that the heat is not yet behind us for the year.

James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. You’ll find notes about the Alabama weather scene here throughout the day, so check back often. Be smart with the thunderstorms today, and don’t take any risks when lightning is occurring. Lightning death toll across the US is up to 27 and we don’t want any of our audience to become 28! Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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