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Archive for November, 2012

Some Much Needed Rain

| 6:14 am November 27, 2012

The showers and thunderstorms continue to push off to the southeast this morning. Most of the action is to the southeast of Interstate 20/59 now. Even though these storms have been non-severe, a couple of them have had some very impressive lightning and very loud thunder. Some beneficial rains are falling with these storms and are helping our rainfall deficits across the state. Many areas have received from a quarter of an inch to around a half an inch of rain this morning and that seems to be totals that many of our skywatchers are reporting. Higher rain totals  have been reported especially from Jefferson County back to the west.

The rain is ending off to the northwest of Birmingham and will be ending from northwest to southeast across the state through the morning. Cold front is pushing through the state today too which will bring us some cooler weather for a couple of days, but will we return to very mild conditions for the weekend. We may get enough clearing today that we see the sun this afternoon. Clear skies tonight will allow for many areas to drop toward the low to mid 30s by tomorrow morning.

 

 

Rain Ending From West To East

| 5:47 am November 27, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WET START: A band of showers and storms is moving through Alabama early this morning. As I write this (around 5:30), the rain is in a broad area from Demopolis to Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Gadsden. The rain has already ended over Northwest Alabama, and the rain will end from west to east during the next few hours. Clouds will linger through the day, and we won’t get out of the 50s as cooler air slips in from the north.

The sky will clear tonight, and by daybreak tomorrow many communities over North Alabama will be very close to freezing.

TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: These three days will feature a good supply of sunshine with warmer afternoons. The high tomorrow will be near 60, followed by mid 60s Thursday and Friday. We will be well down in the 30s again early tomorrow and Thursday morning, but the low Friday morning will be closer to 40.

MILD START TO DECEMBER: The GFS is printing a high of 71 degrees Saturday, Sunday, and Monday as we begin meteorological winter. Looks like a fabulous weekend with a mix of sun and clouds both days. There will be some increase in low level moisture, but for now the chance of a shower looks so small it isn’t worth mentioning in the formal forecast. Nights will be warmer as well; the low will be in the low 50s early Saturday and Sunday morning.

NEXT WEEK: A cold front is expected to pass through Alabama Wednesday (Dec 5) with a band of showers and storms, followed by colder air Thursday and Friday (Dec 6-7). Out in the land of voodoo, the GFS shows a very cold airmass moving into the state around December 12, but we all know that can and probably will change. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

CONSISTENTLY COLD? I often hear people ask “When will it turn cold and stay cold?”… the answer is NEVER in Alabama! This is a low latitude state; our average high never drops below 52, and the average low never drops below 32. If you are looking for long term cold weather, you need to head north…

THIS WINTER: I also have people asking me often about the “winter outlook”. I am not a big fan of seasonal outlooks… there isn’t much skill in that, and I don’t even try. Having said that, I figure this winter won’t be as mild as last year, and not as cold and snowy as 2010-11. I guess an “average” winter might describe it meaning lots of changes, occasional shots of really cold air, and one or two decent snow or winter storm threats. We will see.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Floyd Elementary School in Gadsden… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Heavy Non-Severe Thunderstorms

| 4:59 am November 27, 2012

Waking up this morning to some heavy thunderstorms moving through Central Alabama. Heavy rain and frequent lightning are accompanying these storms, but none of them are severe. The heaviest activity is along Interstate 20/59 from near Vance through Birmingham to about Springville.

Behind these initial storms, heavy rain is falling in Jasper, Tuscaloosa and Aliceville. These storms will continue to push to the southeast this morning as the cold front works across the state.

WeatherBrains 357: Dropping Like Flies

| 4:55 am November 27, 2012

WeatherBrains Episode 357 is now online (November 26, 2012). If you are really nuts about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Dr. Tony LupoTonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a suggestion of listener Ken Hoglund. He is an alum, having appeared on show number 249 in November, 2010, not one of his greatest claims to fame. He is the Department Chair and Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Missouri. Tonight we welcome Dr. Tony Lupo back to the show.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 87 at Corpus Christi, Killeen, and Junction, TX, and -11 at Fosston, MN
  • Tranquil across the Southeast recently
  • Severe weather threat tonight in Louisiana and East Texas
  • Alaska -36 at Northway
  • and more!

Our email bag officer has come up with a big excuse to turn the reins back to Kevin who is conveniently out (one of those flies!!). So who knows if anyone is handling the mailbag tonight?

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: This week is part two of a three part series on precipitation types. With winter just around the corner and some pretty cold days occurring across the vast fruited plain, it seems appropriate to look into the frozen types. And there are several.

TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of November 26th.

Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 357:

School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri

Dr. Lupo’s Home Page

CPC El Nino Page

Picks of the Week:

JB Elliott – Lightning Photo from the USS Eisenhower

Bill Murray – Where have the tornadoes gone?

Brian Peters – Online Cloud Atlas

James Spann – USGS Earthquake Hazards Map

JP Spann – Alabama Tornado Outbreak from November, 2001

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Audible.com graphic

Rain Moves Into Alabama Tonight

| 3:01 pm November 26, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

BIG WARM-UP: Some North Alabama communities have warmed up nearly 40 degrees today… from morning low to afternoon high. Birmingham reported 65 degrees at 2:00; Montgomery was at 71. Clouds, as expected, have increased over the past few hours, and are thicker over the western counties.

We note a band of showers and a few thunderstorms over Central Mississippi; those are moving slowly to the east and will impact West Alabama later tonight.

RAIN RETURNS: Not much change in the overall thinking. The primary threat of showers across Alabama will come from about midnight tonight through 12:00 noon tomorrow. The 12Z NAM prints only 0.28″ for Birmingham, while the GFS shows the exact same amount… 0.28″. Sounds about right to me… most folks can expect about a quarter of an inch of rain late tonight and tomorrow morning. Certainly no threat of severe weather, and most folks across North Alabama won’t even hear any thunder with a stable airmass and somewhat weak dynamic support.

Clouds will linger through tomorrow afternoon, and we won’t get out of the 50s due to the clouds and showers.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Look for mostly sunny pleasant days and clear chilly nights over the latter half of the week. The high Wednesday will be near 60, followed by mid 60s Thursday and Friday. The low early Wednesday and Thursday morning will be in the 30-36 degree range, but Friday morning will be warmer with a low somewhere between 38 and 45.

MILD WEEKEND: We are projecting highs around the 70 degree mark both Saturday and Sunday as we begin meteorological winter this weekend. The days will feature a mix of sun and clouds, and we might consider a slight risk of a shower Saturday with a weak impulse passing through, but the chance of rain looks so small now it really isn’t worth mentioning in the forecast.

We stay mild early next week, but the GFS continues to show a cold front passing through here in the December 5-6 time frame, followed by sharply colder air. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m. CDT… you can watch live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the 7th graders at Helena Middle School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Lunchtime Update

| 12:17 pm November 26, 2012

Checking out the latest satellite image, clouds have been moving into Alabama all morning. High clouds have made it into East Alabama. The more widespread and thicker cumulus clouds are running along and west of the Interstate 65 corridor from Huntsville through Birmingham down towards Montgomery. The clouds off to our west in Mississippi will continue to spread east today as our the atmosphere over us really begins to moisten up.

For much of the morning, many locations in Mississippi have been reporting light to moderate rains at times. As the showers have been working towards Alabama, they have been falling apart and dissipating. That is because the air over Alabama is very dry once you get above the surface layer. As the storm system off to our west continues to develop, our moisture levels will be on the increase today, especially with the winds coming out of the south. Expect our radar to fill in this evening as showers and thunderstorms that develop along the front move our directions. Areas in Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana and eastern Texas are under a slight risk for severe weather today. No risk for any part of Alabama currently, but we will be watching the storms once they fire up and begin their march to the east southeast with the cold front. Damaging winds and large hail look to be the the SPC’s greatest concerns with thunderstorms that develop today.

Rain Returns Late Tonight

| 6:04 am November 26, 2012

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ANOTHER COLD MORNING: Many communities are below freezing again this morning. Some 5:00 a.m. observations include…

Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) 24
Gadsden 27
Noccalula Falls (Gadsden) 27
Fort Payne 28
Valley Head 28
Anniston 29
Coker 29
Concord 30
Montgomery 31

We do note temperatures are much warmer over Northwest Alabama, where clouds have moved in. Muscle Shoals reports 43 degrees.

THE DAY AHEAD: We should warm into the mid 60s today with an increasingly cloudy sky. To the west, we will watch a batch of showers and storms that will form over North Louisiana and some of the adjacent states; SPC has the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for this region this afternoon and tonight, but the risk is somewhat marginal.

RAIN MOVES INTO ALABAMA: It looks like our main window for showers will come from midnight tonight through 12:00 noon tomorrow. Severe weather is not expected, and rain for the northern half of Alabama should be light. The NAM is printing 0.35″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is drier with only 0.11″. I figure most places around here will see a quarter inch or less. And, I doubt if we hear any thunder because the air will be stable.

Tomorrow will be a bit cooler with a high in the upper 50s due to the clouds and morning showers, but there isn’t any really cold air to follow the rain.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: These three days will feature sunny pleasant days and clear chilly nights. Temperatures will be seasonal; highs in the 60s and lows mostly in the 30s. The coldest morning will come early Wednesday with some places reaching the freezing mark.

WEEKEND PEEK: Our weather over the weekend should be mild for early December; the GFS is printing a high of 68 Saturday, followed by 70 degrees Sunday. Mornings won’t be as cold; lows should be in the 46-52 degree range. There will be some increase in moisture, but with little in the way of a trigger I honestly don’t think rain will be an issue. We might consider a slight risk of a shower both days, but for now the chance of getting wet is so small it really isn’t worth mentioning in the forecast.

The weather should stay mild for the first part of next week, but the GFS hints at a cold front around December 5 with a chance of showers, followed by much colder air. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s episode tonight at 8:30; you can watch here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus

I have a weather program this morning at Helena Middle School at 9:00…. look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

A Case of Severe Clear

| 12:37 pm November 25, 2012

It’s a case of one of JB’s favorite weather phenomena today: severe clear.

Bright blue skies cover Alabama and most of the Southeast. If you look hard, you would find one patch of fast moving, high clouds east of Charlotte over North Carolina.

Folks traveling back home from the holidays anywhere in our area are experiencing ideal travel conditions.

Temperatures are in the 50s across the area and will peak around 58 to 59F.

Expect the clear conditions to continue tonight with lows in the lower and middle 30s.

A few showers will reach western Alabama Monday afternoon and rain chances will increase overnight. There could be some embedded thunder, but no severe weather is expected in Alabama. Can’t rule it out, but there shouldn’t be organized severe weather.

There is a slight risk for areas west of Alabama tomorrow.

Rainfall amounts should average between one quarter and one half inch before the rain moves out Tuesday.