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WET IS THE WORD: A wet summer weather pattern is setting up for Alabama as we head into the Independence Day holiday. An axis of deep, tropical moisture with high PW (precipitable water) values will be in place, and an upper trough to the west will provide good dynamic support, setting the stage for some really good summer rain around here through the weekend.
We note a few showers and storms are already in progress across the state early this morning, and conditions favor additional showers and storms to form during the day. The high this afternoon will be in the low to mid 80s, and the sky will be generally cloudy with a few peeks of sun from time to time.
FOURTH OF JULY: Occasional showers and storms are likely statewide tomorrow. Unfortunately, we can’t give you specific rain start and stop times for specific locations, but just understand the rain could come at any time, and when it does come it could be heavy at times. The high resolution 4km NAM model continues to show the most widespread and heaviest rain over the eastern half of Alabama, but I just don’t think we can rule out a good rain event for West Alabama at this point.
No formal severe weather risk, but a strong storm is possible, and keep in mind all summer storms tend to pack lots of lightning. We will struggle to get out of the 70s tomorrow due the the clouds and occasional rain.
And, the rain could very well linger into the late night hours, so it becomes problematic for some of the fireworks shows around Alabama.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The moisture axis hangs around, so we will deal with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on these three days with only a limited amount of sunshine. Highs over the weekend hold in the 80s… interesting to note the last time we saw a high of 90 degrees or higher was back on June 30.
NEXT WEEK: Heights rise a bit, but there is still a general weakness in the upper flow over Alabama, so we will maintain a chance of scattered showers and storms next week with a mix of sun and clouds; highs will be in the 86-90 degree range.
TROPICS: Tropical storm formation is not expected across the Atlantic basin for the rest of the week.
GULF COAST WEATHER: You might see a little sun at times over the next few days, but the weather will be generally wet along the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through Friday with occasional showers and thunderstorms. The rain could be heavy at times, and a few strong storms are possible. Highs will be in the 80s, and the sea water temperatures are in the low 80s.
For Saturday, Sunday, and the first few days of next week, about 2 to 4 hours of sunshine daily with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along the Central Gulf Coast.
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We will be on a holiday schedule for the rest of the week… so just one Weather Xtreme video per day. I will post some forecast notes this afternoon…. enjoy the day!