Feeling Like Summer This Week

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MORE LIKE JUNE: Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s, dewpoints in the 60s… must be getting close to summer. No more cool nights for a while as an upper ridge from the Gulf of Mexico tries to ease in here this week.

TO THE NORTHWEST: A significant severe weather outbreak is likely today from around McAlester, Oklahoma to Indianapolis, where SPC maintains a moderate risk. The standard slight risk surrounds that from near Dallas to Buffalo. A few strong tornadoes are possible in the moderate risk area late today into tonight, and overnight a long line of severe storms will likely evolve and move to the southeast.

Around here, we stay warm and dry today with a high in the mid 80s with a partly sunny sky. Winds will increase, gusting to 25/30 mph at times this afternoon.

TOMORROW: All of a sudden SPC has placed the northern half of Alabama in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for tomorrow. This is nothing like the situation last Friday, and somewhat marginal with the best dynamics lifting far to the northeast of here. A surface front will be drifting down toward the Tennessee Valley tomorrow night, becoming nearly stationary as it loses it’s southward push. Instability values are pretty high, over 1,500 j/kg, but you have to remember on any summer day we have surface based CAPE values over 3,000 j/kg at times. There is little low level helicity in place, so tornadoes sure don’t look like a problem, but some of the stronger storms could produce hail and gusty winds. The outflow boundary from the expected overnight storms to the northwest will certainly be a factor where the stronger storms will develop.

The best chance of a thunderstorm will come tomorrow afternoon, and they should die off quickly once the sun goes down tomorrow evening. The most widespread rain, most likely, comes over the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama, with the activity being more scattered down this way. The high will be in the low to mid 80s.

THURSDAY: The front will still be hanging around, so we will maintain some risk of showers and storms during the day Thursday. Like Wednesday, the day won’t be a total wash-out, and the most widespread activity should be over the northern third of the state as the old surface front begins to lift northward. We stay warm and humid with a high in the 81-85 degree range.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: The Easter weekend still looks mostly dry and very warm. Highs in the mid 80s, with high humidity values holding in place. The upper ridge should keep us mostly rain-free, although I can’t rule out the chance of a pop-up shower somewhere during the afternoon and evening hours. The chance is so small that we won’t mention it on our formal forecast for now.

NEXT WEEK: Another strong wave to the west could bring some active convection to Alabama at some point next week; looks like the Tuesday-Wednesday period could offer a window for strong to severe thunderstorms; see the Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas.

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I have a weather program this morning for Hope Christian School, a home school group that will be meeting at First Baptist Church of Pelham… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: summer-like

Category: Alabama's Weather